Recent polls from Harris Interactive and RTL in late April and early May 2026 show Rassemblement National leader Jordan Bardella leading first-round voting intentions at 34-35%, with Horizons' Édouard Philippe at 19% as the strongest challenger best positioned for a potential runoff, aligning with trader consensus on this tight race. Ongoing political fragmentation from the 2024 hung parliament and successive government crises under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu have amplified calls for change one year before the April 2027 two-round election, boosting far-right momentum despite National Rally's limited municipal election gains in March. A splintered left keeps Jean-Luc Mélenchon at around 12%, while Marine Le Pen's low odds reflect her embezzlement conviction barring candidacy pending a July appeal. Party primaries, including the United Left's in October, and economic pressures could consolidate fields and create separation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоParis appeals court sets July 7 verdict date for Marine Le Pen's appeal trial
Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2%
The court announced the verdict date for Le Pen's appeal trial, heightening uncertainty about her presidential bid and boosting Bardella's prospects as her potential replacement, impacting their market prices.
Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, putting 2027 presidential bid at risk
Marine Le Pen drops to 9%7%
Marine Le Pen began her appeal trial against a conviction for misusing EU funds, with the outcome potentially barring her from running in the 2027 presidential election. This legal uncertainty led to a decline in her market price and increased interest in her protege Jordan Bardella as a possible replacement candidate.
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