France’s fragmented parliament and upcoming 2027 presidential election are the dominant factors underpinning the 57.5% market-implied probability that no full national budget will pass by December 31. With no stable majority, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government faces certain censure threats from La France Insoumise and potential opposition from Rassemblement National and Socialist lawmakers over proposed €30 billion in savings, pension adjustments, and spending restraint. Recent downgrades to 2026 growth (0.5%) and acknowledgment that the deficit will exceed the 5% GDP target have intensified pressure on borrowing costs, with French 10-year yields hitting 4.5%—the highest since 2008—while debt service now dominates expenditure. Historical precedent of a special loi spéciale in late 2025, combined with parties’ incentives to avoid binding commitments before the April-May vote, reinforces trader expectations of delay or rollover into 2027.