France’s fragmented National Assembly and minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu face steep hurdles passing a full 2027 budget by year-end, supporting the 57.5% market-implied probability of “No.” Opposition parties, including La France Insoumise, have signaled immediate no-confidence votes, while Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National keeps the option open amid positioning for the April-May 2027 presidential election. Recent downgrades to 2026 growth (0.5%) and deficit targets above 5% of GDP, alongside elevated French-German yield spreads at multi-year highs, underscore fiscal strain that discourages compromise. The government plans to unveil its bill by late September targeting roughly €30 billion in savings without new taxes, but historical reliance on Article 49.3 and special rollover laws in prior cycles points to a likely emergency measure preserving tax collection and spending continuity rather than full legislative passage.