Ongoing indirect diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, including messages relayed through intermediaries as recently as October 25, combined with President Trump’s statements ruling out strikes on specific days while weighing a deal against limited further action, supports the 81.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion before 2027. The short two-month window before year-end, focus on post-midterm strike planning rather than ground operations, and absence of mobilization for large-scale troop deployment reinforce this positioning. Recent reports highlight military readiness for airstrikes on infrastructure or nuclear sites if ordered, yet emphasize diplomatic channels and stalled interim agreements over escalation to full invasion.