**Recent U.S.-Iran military exchanges and stalled diplomacy explain the 83.5% trader consensus against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027.** The 2026 conflict began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in late February targeting Iranian missile systems, air defenses, and leadership, followed by Iranian missile and drone responses and a June ceasefire that later frayed over Strait of Hormuz shipping. Operations through August have remained focused on air and naval strikes, infrastructure pressure, and blockade enforcement rather than large-scale troop deployments or territorial control inside Iran. Ongoing talks, mutual compensation demands, and U.S. emphasis on limited objectives—such as degrading capabilities and securing maritime access—have kept escalation below the threshold of a ground invasion. With only months left in the resolution window, the absence of announced plans for occupation or regime-change operations by ground forces reinforces the current pricing.