The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which began with joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in February 2026 targeting Iranian military sites and leadership, has remained an air and missile campaign without U.S. ground forces entering Iranian territory. As of mid-August 2026, intermittent U.S. strikes continue amid stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and compensation demands, while both sides exchange messages through intermediaries and apply economic pressure. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to no U.S. invasion before 2027, reflecting the absence of mobilization for large-scale ground operations, historical reluctance for occupation, and focus on airstrikes plus diplomacy in the remaining months of 2026.