US officials have explicitly distinguished the August 4 visa revocation of Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti from any expulsion, framing it as a reversible reciprocal measure tied to Brazil’s delay in approving President Trump’s ambassador nominee and its denial of visas to two US diplomats. State Department statements indicate the action can be undone once accreditation occurs, with no subsequent announcements signaling further steps such as formal expulsion ahead of the September 30 deadline. Ongoing bilateral frictions over tariffs and Brazil’s October elections have not escalated to that threshold, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the high probability assigned to “No.”
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
6% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
Да
6% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US officials have explicitly distinguished the August 4 visa revocation of Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti from any expulsion, framing it as a reversible reciprocal measure tied to Brazil’s delay in approving President Trump’s ambassador nominee and its denial of visas to two US diplomats. State Department statements indicate the action can be undone once accreditation occurs, with no subsequent announcements signaling further steps such as formal expulsion ahead of the September 30 deadline. Ongoing bilateral frictions over tariffs and Brazil’s October elections have not escalated to that threshold, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the high probability assigned to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Объем
$1,807Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US officials have explicitly distinguished the August 4 visa revocation of Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti from any expulsion, framing it as a reversible reciprocal measure tied to Brazil’s delay in approving President Trump’s ambassador nominee and its denial of visas to two US diplomats. State Department statements indicate the action can be undone once accreditation occurs, with no subsequent announcements signaling further steps such as formal expulsion ahead of the September 30 deadline. Ongoing bilateral frictions over tariffs and Brazil’s October elections have not escalated to that threshold, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the high probability assigned to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$1,807Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US officials have explicitly distinguished the August 4 visa revocation of Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti from any expulsion, framing it as a reversible reciprocal measure tied to Brazil’s delay in approving President Trump’s ambassador nominee and its denial of visas to two US diplomats. State Department statements indicate the action can be undone once accreditation occurs, with no subsequent announcements signaling further steps such as formal expulsion ahead of the September 30 deadline. Ongoing bilateral frictions over tariffs and Brazil’s October elections have not escalated to that threshold, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the high probability assigned to “No.”
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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