Strained U.S. relations with certain partners have produced public calls for expulsions, yet no government has declared a U.S. ambassador persona non grata in recent months. In Canada, a petition exceeding 260,000 signatures targets Ambassador Pete Hoekstra amid trade disputes and annexation rhetoric, while a smaller Namibian petition seeks similar action over resource concerns. Iceland summoned the U.S. envoy following a controversial social media post, and Brazil delayed ambassador approval in a reciprocal diplomatic dispute. These frictions remain below the threshold of formal expulsion under the Vienna Convention. With multiple U.S. ambassadorial posts vacant or filled by chargés d’affaires after recent recalls, traders assign an 85.5% implied probability that no country will complete such a step before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
12% вероятность
$33,023 Объем
$33,023 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
12% вероятность
$33,023 Объем
$33,023 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Strained U.S. relations with certain partners have produced public calls for expulsions, yet no government has declared a U.S. ambassador persona non grata in recent months. In Canada, a petition exceeding 260,000 signatures targets Ambassador Pete Hoekstra amid trade disputes and annexation rhetoric, while a smaller Namibian petition seeks similar action over resource concerns. Iceland summoned the U.S. envoy following a controversial social media post, and Brazil delayed ambassador approval in a reciprocal diplomatic dispute. These frictions remain below the threshold of formal expulsion under the Vienna Convention. With multiple U.S. ambassadorial posts vacant or filled by chargés d’affaires after recent recalls, traders assign an 85.5% implied probability that no country will complete such a step before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Объем
$33,023Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Strained U.S. relations with certain partners have produced public calls for expulsions, yet no government has declared a U.S. ambassador persona non grata in recent months. In Canada, a petition exceeding 260,000 signatures targets Ambassador Pete Hoekstra amid trade disputes and annexation rhetoric, while a smaller Namibian petition seeks similar action over resource concerns. Iceland summoned the U.S. envoy following a controversial social media post, and Brazil delayed ambassador approval in a reciprocal diplomatic dispute. These frictions remain below the threshold of formal expulsion under the Vienna Convention. With multiple U.S. ambassadorial posts vacant or filled by chargés d’affaires after recent recalls, traders assign an 85.5% implied probability that no country will complete such a step before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$33,023Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Strained U.S. relations with certain partners have produced public calls for expulsions, yet no government has declared a U.S. ambassador persona non grata in recent months. In Canada, a petition exceeding 260,000 signatures targets Ambassador Pete Hoekstra amid trade disputes and annexation rhetoric, while a smaller Namibian petition seeks similar action over resource concerns. Iceland summoned the U.S. envoy following a controversial social media post, and Brazil delayed ambassador approval in a reciprocal diplomatic dispute. These frictions remain below the threshold of formal expulsion under the Vienna Convention. With multiple U.S. ambassadorial posts vacant or filled by chargés d’affaires after recent recalls, traders assign an 85.5% implied probability that no country will complete such a step before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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