Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses have sustained restrictions on Israeli airspace, including capacity limits and selective flight approvals at Ben Gurion Airport. Partial reopenings began in early March, with Israeli authorities extending NOTAMs through mid-April amid security assessments, though full commercial operations remain curtailed. Recent announcements by Lufthansa to resume flights in June signal declining immediate threats, contributing to trader assessments of lower odds for a full closure by late May. Key upcoming factors include any new diplomatic signals, military developments in the Iran-Israel dynamic, or shifts in airline safety reviews that could alter risk perceptions within the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$867,186 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
May 31
31%
30 июня
43%
$867,186 Объем
May 31
$365,974 Объем
31%
30 июня
$6,043 Объем
43%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses have sustained restrictions on Israeli airspace, including capacity limits and selective flight approvals at Ben Gurion Airport. Partial reopenings began in early March, with Israeli authorities extending NOTAMs through mid-April amid security assessments, though full commercial operations remain curtailed. Recent announcements by Lufthansa to resume flights in June signal declining immediate threats, contributing to trader assessments of lower odds for a full closure by late May. Key upcoming factors include any new diplomatic signals, military developments in the Iran-Israel dynamic, or shifts in airline safety reviews that could alter risk perceptions within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Объем
$867,186Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses have sustained restrictions on Israeli airspace, including capacity limits and selective flight approvals at Ben Gurion Airport. Partial reopenings began in early March, with Israeli authorities extending NOTAMs through mid-April amid security assessments, though full commercial operations remain curtailed. Recent announcements by Lufthansa to resume flights in June signal declining immediate threats, contributing to trader assessments of lower odds for a full closure by late May. Key upcoming factors include any new diplomatic signals, military developments in the Iran-Israel dynamic, or shifts in airline safety reviews that could alter risk perceptions within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$867,186Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses have sustained restrictions on Israeli airspace, including capacity limits and selective flight approvals at Ben Gurion Airport. Partial reopenings began in early March, with Israeli authorities extending NOTAMs through mid-April amid security assessments, though full commercial operations remain curtailed. Recent announcements by Lufthansa to resume flights in June signal declining immediate threats, contributing to trader assessments of lower odds for a full closure by late May. Key upcoming factors include any new diplomatic signals, military developments in the Iran-Israel dynamic, or shifts in airline safety reviews that could alter risk perceptions within the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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