Heightened tensions from the Israel-Iran conflict, including the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, shape trader views on further Israeli airspace closures. Israeli authorities implemented multiple temporary shutdowns of the Tel Aviv FIR between February and July 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses, with additional brief interruptions following Houthi intercepts. As of mid-August 2026 the airspace remains open, though EASA and aviation regulators maintain elevated risk alerts tied to potential strikes or proxy actions by groups such as Hezbollah. International carriers continue limited operations amid US Embassy advisories on short-notice disruptions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$27,010,447 Объем
15 авг. 2026 г.
15 августа
<1%
31 августа
6%
$27,010,447 Объем
15 августа
$965,499 Объем
<1%
31 августа
$1,021,763 Объем
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Heightened tensions from the Israel-Iran conflict, including the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, shape trader views on further Israeli airspace closures. Israeli authorities implemented multiple temporary shutdowns of the Tel Aviv FIR between February and July 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses, with additional brief interruptions following Houthi intercepts. As of mid-August 2026 the airspace remains open, though EASA and aviation regulators maintain elevated risk alerts tied to potential strikes or proxy actions by groups such as Hezbollah. International carriers continue limited operations amid US Embassy advisories on short-notice disruptions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Объем
$27,010,447Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Heightened tensions from the Israel-Iran conflict, including the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, shape trader views on further Israeli airspace closures. Israeli authorities implemented multiple temporary shutdowns of the Tel Aviv FIR between February and July 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses, with additional brief interruptions following Houthi intercepts. As of mid-August 2026 the airspace remains open, though EASA and aviation regulators maintain elevated risk alerts tied to potential strikes or proxy actions by groups such as Hezbollah. International carriers continue limited operations amid US Embassy advisories on short-notice disruptions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$27,010,447Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Heightened tensions from the Israel-Iran conflict, including the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz, shape trader views on further Israeli airspace closures. Israeli authorities implemented multiple temporary shutdowns of the Tel Aviv FIR between February and July 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile-drone responses, with additional brief interruptions following Houthi intercepts. As of mid-August 2026 the airspace remains open, though EASA and aviation regulators maintain elevated risk alerts tied to potential strikes or proxy actions by groups such as Hezbollah. International carriers continue limited operations amid US Embassy advisories on short-notice disruptions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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