Recent U.S.-Israel strikes during the 2026 Iran war killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February, prompting rapid activation of constitutional succession rules and selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei by the Assembly of Experts in early March. Traders price low near-term odds of further change because the new leadership consolidated power through IRGC networks and an interim council, preserving regime continuity despite personnel losses and ongoing diplomatic friction. Key variables include Mojtaba Khamenei's health and visibility, internal hardliner-moderate tensions, potential nuclear or regional talks, and any escalation that could trigger additional turnover before 2027 resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$23,399,972 Объем
15 августа
<1%
22 августа
1%
31 августа
3%
30 сентября
7%
31 октября
11%
30 ноября
14%
31 декабря
19%
30 июня 2027 года
26%
$23,399,972 Объем
15 августа
<1%
22 августа
1%
31 августа
3%
30 сентября
7%
31 октября
11%
30 ноября
14%
31 декабря
19%
30 июня 2027 года
26%
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israel strikes during the 2026 Iran war killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February, prompting rapid activation of constitutional succession rules and selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei by the Assembly of Experts in early March. Traders price low near-term odds of further change because the new leadership consolidated power through IRGC networks and an interim council, preserving regime continuity despite personnel losses and ongoing diplomatic friction. Key variables include Mojtaba Khamenei's health and visibility, internal hardliner-moderate tensions, potential nuclear or regional talks, and any escalation that could trigger additional turnover before 2027 resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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