Recent U.S.-Israel strikes during the 2026 Iran war killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February, prompting rapid activation of constitutional succession rules and selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei by the Assembly of Experts in early March. Traders price low near-term odds of further change because the new leadership consolidated power through IRGC networks and an interim council, preserving regime continuity despite personnel losses and ongoing diplomatic friction. Key variables include Mojtaba Khamenei's health and visibility, internal hardliner-moderate tensions, potential nuclear or regional talks, and any escalation that could trigger additional turnover before 2027 resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$23,399,972 Объем
15 авг. 2026 г.
15 августа
<1%
22 августа
1%
31 августа
3%
30 сентября
7%
31 октября
11%
30 ноября
14%
31 декабря
19%
30 июня 2027 года
26%
$23,399,972 Объем
15 августа
$52,928 Объем
<1%
22 августа
$22,602 Объем
1%
31 августа
$1,130,196 Объем
3%
30 сентября
$431,462 Объем
7%
31 октября
$7,555 Объем
11%
30 ноября
$8,923 Объем
14%
31 декабря
$3,967,645 Объем
19%
30 июня 2027 года
$232,284 Объем
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israel strikes during the 2026 Iran war killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February, prompting rapid activation of constitutional succession rules and selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei by the Assembly of Experts in early March. Traders price low near-term odds of further change because the new leadership consolidated power through IRGC networks and an interim council, preserving regime continuity despite personnel losses and ongoing diplomatic friction. Key variables include Mojtaba Khamenei's health and visibility, internal hardliner-moderate tensions, potential nuclear or regional talks, and any escalation that could trigger additional turnover before 2027 resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Объем
$23,399,972Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israel strikes during the 2026 Iran war killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February, prompting rapid activation of constitutional succession rules and selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei by the Assembly of Experts in early March. Traders price low near-term odds of further change because the new leadership consolidated power through IRGC networks and an interim council, preserving regime continuity despite personnel losses and ongoing diplomatic friction. Key variables include Mojtaba Khamenei's health and visibility, internal hardliner-moderate tensions, potential nuclear or regional talks, and any escalation that could trigger additional turnover before 2027 resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$23,399,972Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israel strikes during the 2026 Iran war killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February, prompting rapid activation of constitutional succession rules and selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei by the Assembly of Experts in early March. Traders price low near-term odds of further change because the new leadership consolidated power through IRGC networks and an interim council, preserving regime continuity despite personnel losses and ongoing diplomatic friction. Key variables include Mojtaba Khamenei's health and visibility, internal hardliner-moderate tensions, potential nuclear or regional talks, and any escalation that could trigger additional turnover before 2027 resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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