**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's new Supreme Leader in early March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes during the ongoing conflict.** This rapid constitutional transition via the interim leadership council and clerical body has anchored trader views, with markets pricing very low near-term odds of further turnover. Key stabilizing factors include broad consensus among Revolutionary Guards commanders, security institutions, and hardline elites, who have renewed pledges of allegiance despite the new leader's limited public profile and reported health questions. Recent military preparations under Mojtaba signal continuity in confrontation policy, while diplomatic channels and internal power balances remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before late-2026 resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$23,399,811 Объем
15 авг. 2026 г.
15 августа
<1%
22 августа
1%
31 августа
3%
30 сентября
7%
31 октября
11%
30 ноября
14%
31 декабря
19%
30 июня 2027 года
26%
$23,399,811 Объем
15 августа
$52,927 Объем
<1%
22 августа
$22,602 Объем
1%
31 августа
$1,130,036 Объем
3%
30 сентября
$431,462 Объем
7%
31 октября
$7,555 Объем
11%
30 ноября
$8,923 Объем
14%
31 декабря
$3,967,645 Объем
19%
30 июня 2027 года
$232,284 Объем
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's new Supreme Leader in early March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes during the ongoing conflict.** This rapid constitutional transition via the interim leadership council and clerical body has anchored trader views, with markets pricing very low near-term odds of further turnover. Key stabilizing factors include broad consensus among Revolutionary Guards commanders, security institutions, and hardline elites, who have renewed pledges of allegiance despite the new leader's limited public profile and reported health questions. Recent military preparations under Mojtaba signal continuity in confrontation policy, while diplomatic channels and internal power balances remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before late-2026 resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Объем
$23,399,811Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's new Supreme Leader in early March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes during the ongoing conflict.** This rapid constitutional transition via the interim leadership council and clerical body has anchored trader views, with markets pricing very low near-term odds of further turnover. Key stabilizing factors include broad consensus among Revolutionary Guards commanders, security institutions, and hardline elites, who have renewed pledges of allegiance despite the new leader's limited public profile and reported health questions. Recent military preparations under Mojtaba signal continuity in confrontation policy, while diplomatic channels and internal power balances remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before late-2026 resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$23,399,811Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's new Supreme Leader in early March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes during the ongoing conflict.** This rapid constitutional transition via the interim leadership council and clerical body has anchored trader views, with markets pricing very low near-term odds of further turnover. Key stabilizing factors include broad consensus among Revolutionary Guards commanders, security institutions, and hardline elites, who have renewed pledges of allegiance despite the new leader's limited public profile and reported health questions. Recent military preparations under Mojtaba signal continuity in confrontation policy, while diplomatic channels and internal power balances remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before late-2026 resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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