Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering an expedited succession process under the Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei was formally selected as his successor in early March, marking the first dynastic transition in the Islamic Republic’s history and shifting power toward a narrower circle of IRGC commanders and hardline figures, including Ahmad Vahidi. The regime survived subsequent military exchanges and has since focused on consolidating control, managing economic pressures from sanctions, and negotiating access and fees through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent August 2026 developments center on stalled diplomacy, additional U.S. sanctions, and Iranian demands for concessions, which traders monitor for signals of internal factional strain or further elite turnover before any market resolution date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$23,403,015 Объем
15 авг. 2026 г.
15 августа
<1%
22 августа
1%
31 августа
3%
30 сентября
7%
31 октября
10%
30 ноября
14%
31 декабря
19%
30 июня 2027 года
26%
$23,403,015 Объем
15 августа
$52,933 Объем
<1%
22 августа
$22,602 Объем
1%
31 августа
$1,130,238 Объем
3%
30 сентября
$434,332 Объем
7%
31 октября
$7,555 Объем
10%
30 ноября
$8,923 Объем
14%
31 декабря
$3,967,693 Объем
19%
30 июня 2027 года
$232,362 Объем
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering an expedited succession process under the Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei was formally selected as his successor in early March, marking the first dynastic transition in the Islamic Republic’s history and shifting power toward a narrower circle of IRGC commanders and hardline figures, including Ahmad Vahidi. The regime survived subsequent military exchanges and has since focused on consolidating control, managing economic pressures from sanctions, and negotiating access and fees through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent August 2026 developments center on stalled diplomacy, additional U.S. sanctions, and Iranian demands for concessions, which traders monitor for signals of internal factional strain or further elite turnover before any market resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Объем
$23,403,015Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering an expedited succession process under the Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei was formally selected as his successor in early March, marking the first dynastic transition in the Islamic Republic’s history and shifting power toward a narrower circle of IRGC commanders and hardline figures, including Ahmad Vahidi. The regime survived subsequent military exchanges and has since focused on consolidating control, managing economic pressures from sanctions, and negotiating access and fees through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent August 2026 developments center on stalled diplomacy, additional U.S. sanctions, and Iranian demands for concessions, which traders monitor for signals of internal factional strain or further elite turnover before any market resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$23,403,015Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering an expedited succession process under the Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei was formally selected as his successor in early March, marking the first dynastic transition in the Islamic Republic’s history and shifting power toward a narrower circle of IRGC commanders and hardline figures, including Ahmad Vahidi. The regime survived subsequent military exchanges and has since focused on consolidating control, managing economic pressures from sanctions, and negotiating access and fees through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent August 2026 developments center on stalled diplomacy, additional U.S. sanctions, and Iranian demands for concessions, which traders monitor for signals of internal factional strain or further elite turnover before any market resolution date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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