Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28, 2026, amid US-Israeli airstrikes, Iran confirmed his death on March 1 and formed an interim leadership council comprising President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a Guardian Council member. The Assembly of Experts convened shortly after, reportedly selecting Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by early March. However, unverified intelligence assessments since early April claim Mojtaba remains unconscious or gravely injured from subsequent strikes, with no public appearances and rumors of IRGC dominance in decision-making. Traders weigh this leadership vacuum against ongoing war escalations, potential Assembly reconvening, and diplomatic talks that could stabilize or trigger further upheaval.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$13,510,183 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
31 мая
8%
30 июня
14%
31 декабря
35%
$13,510,183 Объем
31 мая
$1,875,395 Объем
8%
30 июня
$1,052,144 Объем
14%
31 декабря
$2,386,769 Объем
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28, 2026, amid US-Israeli airstrikes, Iran confirmed his death on March 1 and formed an interim leadership council comprising President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a Guardian Council member. The Assembly of Experts convened shortly after, reportedly selecting Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by early March. However, unverified intelligence assessments since early April claim Mojtaba remains unconscious or gravely injured from subsequent strikes, with no public appearances and rumors of IRGC dominance in decision-making. Traders weigh this leadership vacuum against ongoing war escalations, potential Assembly reconvening, and diplomatic talks that could stabilize or trigger further upheaval.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Объем
$13,510,183Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28, 2026, amid US-Israeli airstrikes, Iran confirmed his death on March 1 and formed an interim leadership council comprising President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a Guardian Council member. The Assembly of Experts convened shortly after, reportedly selecting Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by early March. However, unverified intelligence assessments since early April claim Mojtaba remains unconscious or gravely injured from subsequent strikes, with no public appearances and rumors of IRGC dominance in decision-making. Traders weigh this leadership vacuum against ongoing war escalations, potential Assembly reconvening, and diplomatic talks that could stabilize or trigger further upheaval.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$13,510,183Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28, 2026, amid US-Israeli airstrikes, Iran confirmed his death on March 1 and formed an interim leadership council comprising President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a Guardian Council member. The Assembly of Experts convened shortly after, reportedly selecting Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by early March. However, unverified intelligence assessments since early April claim Mojtaba remains unconscious or gravely injured from subsequent strikes, with no public appearances and rumors of IRGC dominance in decision-making. Traders weigh this leadership vacuum against ongoing war escalations, potential Assembly reconvening, and diplomatic talks that could stabilize or trigger further upheaval.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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