Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering an expedited succession process under the Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei was formally selected as his successor in early March, marking the first dynastic transition in the Islamic Republic’s history and shifting power toward a narrower circle of IRGC commanders and hardline figures, including Ahmad Vahidi. The regime survived subsequent military exchanges and has since focused on consolidating control, managing economic pressures from sanctions, and negotiating access and fees through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent August 2026 developments center on stalled diplomacy, additional U.S. sanctions, and Iranian demands for concessions, which traders monitor for signals of internal factional strain or further elite turnover before any market resolution date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$23,403,015 Объем
15 августа
<1%
22 августа
1%
31 августа
3%
30 сентября
7%
31 октября
10%
30 ноября
14%
31 декабря
19%
30 июня 2027 года
26%
$23,403,015 Объем
15 августа
<1%
22 августа
1%
31 августа
3%
30 сентября
7%
31 октября
10%
30 ноября
14%
31 декабря
19%
30 июня 2027 года
26%
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering an expedited succession process under the Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei was formally selected as his successor in early March, marking the first dynastic transition in the Islamic Republic’s history and shifting power toward a narrower circle of IRGC commanders and hardline figures, including Ahmad Vahidi. The regime survived subsequent military exchanges and has since focused on consolidating control, managing economic pressures from sanctions, and negotiating access and fees through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent August 2026 developments center on stalled diplomacy, additional U.S. sanctions, and Iranian demands for concessions, which traders monitor for signals of internal factional strain or further elite turnover before any market resolution date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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