Trader consensus favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability for the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 Iran war and prior protests. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's reported death in a US-Israeli airstrike in late February triggered a swift succession process, with his son Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei emerging as a key figure—President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed meeting him on May 7 amid health rumors, signaling institutional continuity. Despite late 2025-early 2026 uprisings quelled by IRGC and Basij forces, and economic strains from sanctions and conflict, hardliners have consolidated control via an IRGC-led committee, organized pro-regime rallies, and stiff negotiation stances in April cease-fire talks. Ongoing US proposals for war resolution underscore no imminent collapse, with security apparatus intact barring major escalations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$17,625,464 Объем
$17,625,464 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$17,625,464 Объем
$17,625,464 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability for the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 Iran war and prior protests. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's reported death in a US-Israeli airstrike in late February triggered a swift succession process, with his son Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei emerging as a key figure—President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed meeting him on May 7 amid health rumors, signaling institutional continuity. Despite late 2025-early 2026 uprisings quelled by IRGC and Basij forces, and economic strains from sanctions and conflict, hardliners have consolidated control via an IRGC-led committee, organized pro-regime rallies, and stiff negotiation stances in April cease-fire talks. Ongoing US proposals for war resolution underscore no imminent collapse, with security apparatus intact barring major escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Объем
$17,625,464Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability for the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 Iran war and prior protests. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's reported death in a US-Israeli airstrike in late February triggered a swift succession process, with his son Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei emerging as a key figure—President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed meeting him on May 7 amid health rumors, signaling institutional continuity. Despite late 2025-early 2026 uprisings quelled by IRGC and Basij forces, and economic strains from sanctions and conflict, hardliners have consolidated control via an IRGC-led committee, organized pro-regime rallies, and stiff negotiation stances in April cease-fire talks. Ongoing US proposals for war resolution underscore no imminent collapse, with security apparatus intact barring major escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$17,625,464Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability for the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 Iran war and prior protests. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's reported death in a US-Israeli airstrike in late February triggered a swift succession process, with his son Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei emerging as a key figure—President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed meeting him on May 7 amid health rumors, signaling institutional continuity. Despite late 2025-early 2026 uprisings quelled by IRGC and Basij forces, and economic strains from sanctions and conflict, hardliners have consolidated control via an IRGC-led committee, organized pro-regime rallies, and stiff negotiation stances in April cease-fire talks. Ongoing US proposals for war resolution underscore no imminent collapse, with security apparatus intact barring major escalations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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