The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid leadership transition, sustained external military pressure, and domestic unrest underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei earlier in 2026 and his son's succession as Mojtaba Khamenei, the system maintained institutional continuity through hardline factions and the IRGC despite internal divisions and an unseen new leader. Major January protests across all provinces, triggered by economic collapse and currency freefall, were met with lethal force and internet shutdowns, preventing escalation into regime-threatening mobilization. Ongoing U.S. and Israeli strikes through mid-2026, including resumed attacks in August, have degraded capabilities but prompted adaptive responses like escalated regional threats rather than systemic breakdown. Recent September reports highlight factional sabotage of U.S. talks and persistent repression, with analysts noting the absence of unified opposition or elite defections that could accelerate change within the tight timeline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПадет ли иранский режим до 2027 года?
Падет ли иранский режим до 2027 года?
Да
7% вероятность
$26,172,266 Объем
$26,172,266 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
7% вероятность
$26,172,266 Объем
$26,172,266 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid leadership transition, sustained external military pressure, and domestic unrest underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei earlier in 2026 and his son's succession as Mojtaba Khamenei, the system maintained institutional continuity through hardline factions and the IRGC despite internal divisions and an unseen new leader. Major January protests across all provinces, triggered by economic collapse and currency freefall, were met with lethal force and internet shutdowns, preventing escalation into regime-threatening mobilization. Ongoing U.S. and Israeli strikes through mid-2026, including resumed attacks in August, have degraded capabilities but prompted adaptive responses like escalated regional threats rather than systemic breakdown. Recent September reports highlight factional sabotage of U.S. talks and persistent repression, with analysts noting the absence of unified opposition or elite defections that could accelerate change within the tight timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Объем
$26,172,266Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid leadership transition, sustained external military pressure, and domestic unrest underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei earlier in 2026 and his son's succession as Mojtaba Khamenei, the system maintained institutional continuity through hardline factions and the IRGC despite internal divisions and an unseen new leader. Major January protests across all provinces, triggered by economic collapse and currency freefall, were met with lethal force and internet shutdowns, preventing escalation into regime-threatening mobilization. Ongoing U.S. and Israeli strikes through mid-2026, including resumed attacks in August, have degraded capabilities but prompted adaptive responses like escalated regional threats rather than systemic breakdown. Recent September reports highlight factional sabotage of U.S. talks and persistent repression, with analysts noting the absence of unified opposition or elite defections that could accelerate change within the tight timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$26,172,266Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid leadership transition, sustained external military pressure, and domestic unrest underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei earlier in 2026 and his son's succession as Mojtaba Khamenei, the system maintained institutional continuity through hardline factions and the IRGC despite internal divisions and an unseen new leader. Major January protests across all provinces, triggered by economic collapse and currency freefall, were met with lethal force and internet shutdowns, preventing escalation into regime-threatening mobilization. Ongoing U.S. and Israeli strikes through mid-2026, including resumed attacks in August, have degraded capabilities but prompted adaptive responses like escalated regional threats rather than systemic breakdown. Recent September reports highlight factional sabotage of U.S. talks and persistent repression, with analysts noting the absence of unified opposition or elite defections that could accelerate change within the tight timeline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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