Israeli withdrawal from positions beyond the Litani River remains tied to verifiable Lebanese Armed Forces deployment, Hezbollah disarmament, and security guarantees under the June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement, which established limited pilot zones for phased redeployment rather than a fixed timetable. Recent IDF statements, including from Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir in mid-September, emphasize that operations continue to prevent Hezbollah rebuilding south of the river, with artillery and airstrikes reported into late September amid claims that the Lebanese army has not yet demonstrated sole control. Traders assess low near-term probability of broader pullback given Israeli insistence on conditions-based progress, Hezbollah rejection of the deal, and the absence of confirmed LAF expansion or third-party verification. Scheduled developments include the UNIFIL mandate expiration at year-end and any follow-on diplomatic talks that could alter the buffer zone dynamics.