Ongoing diplomatic efforts and the June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran have shaped trader views on the low likelihood of a formal congressional declaration of war, despite renewed military exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz. Following February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that initiated the conflict and a subsequent ceasefire, tensions escalated in July after Iranian restrictions on shipping prompted U.S. blockades and strikes. As of mid-August, talks remain stalled on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and maritime access, with mediators from Pakistan and Oman pushing indirect negotiations while both sides pause attacks to allow diplomacy. Escalation risks persist around enforcement actions and regional proxies, but primary focus stays on de-escalation through existing channels rather than formal war authorization.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудут ли США официально объявлять войну Ирану...?
Будут ли США официально объявлять войну Ирану...?
$7,763,872 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 декабря
3%
$7,763,872 Объем
31 декабря
$791,238 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic efforts and the June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran have shaped trader views on the low likelihood of a formal congressional declaration of war, despite renewed military exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz. Following February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that initiated the conflict and a subsequent ceasefire, tensions escalated in July after Iranian restrictions on shipping prompted U.S. blockades and strikes. As of mid-August, talks remain stalled on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and maritime access, with mediators from Pakistan and Oman pushing indirect negotiations while both sides pause attacks to allow diplomacy. Escalation risks persist around enforcement actions and regional proxies, but primary focus stays on de-escalation through existing channels rather than formal war authorization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Объем
$7,763,872Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic efforts and the June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran have shaped trader views on the low likelihood of a formal congressional declaration of war, despite renewed military exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz. Following February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that initiated the conflict and a subsequent ceasefire, tensions escalated in July after Iranian restrictions on shipping prompted U.S. blockades and strikes. As of mid-August, talks remain stalled on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and maritime access, with mediators from Pakistan and Oman pushing indirect negotiations while both sides pause attacks to allow diplomacy. Escalation risks persist around enforcement actions and regional proxies, but primary focus stays on de-escalation through existing channels rather than formal war authorization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$7,763,872Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic efforts and the June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran have shaped trader views on the low likelihood of a formal congressional declaration of war, despite renewed military exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz. Following February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that initiated the conflict and a subsequent ceasefire, tensions escalated in July after Iranian restrictions on shipping prompted U.S. blockades and strikes. As of mid-August, talks remain stalled on sanctions relief, nuclear limits, and maritime access, with mediators from Pakistan and Oman pushing indirect negotiations while both sides pause attacks to allow diplomacy. Escalation risks persist around enforcement actions and regional proxies, but primary focus stays on de-escalation through existing channels rather than formal war authorization.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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