Escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions since March 2026, including U.S. strikes on military assets at Kharg Island and threats to seize oil infrastructure handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, have shaped trader sentiment on these islands’ control. Kharg’s role as the primary export terminal and the islands’ strategic position near the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil transits—tie outcomes directly to energy market stability, with any shift risking sharp spikes in Brent and WTI benchmarks plus supply disruptions to Asian buyers. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has since reduced near-term odds of territorial change, while broader macroeconomic factors such as Fed policy responses to potential inflation from oil volatility and Treasury yield movements continue to influence positioning. Upcoming catalysts include further diplomatic signals or renewed Gulf shipping incidents that could alter implied probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
НОВОЕ
31 авг. 2026 г.
August 31
2%
September 30
3%
$3,119 Объем
August 31
$2,290 Объем
2%
September 30
$829 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions since March 2026, including U.S. strikes on military assets at Kharg Island and threats to seize oil infrastructure handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, have shaped trader sentiment on these islands’ control. Kharg’s role as the primary export terminal and the islands’ strategic position near the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil transits—tie outcomes directly to energy market stability, with any shift risking sharp spikes in Brent and WTI benchmarks plus supply disruptions to Asian buyers. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has since reduced near-term odds of territorial change, while broader macroeconomic factors such as Fed policy responses to potential inflation from oil volatility and Treasury yield movements continue to influence positioning. Upcoming catalysts include further diplomatic signals or renewed Gulf shipping incidents that could alter implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Объем
$3,119Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions since March 2026, including U.S. strikes on military assets at Kharg Island and threats to seize oil infrastructure handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, have shaped trader sentiment on these islands’ control. Kharg’s role as the primary export terminal and the islands’ strategic position near the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil transits—tie outcomes directly to energy market stability, with any shift risking sharp spikes in Brent and WTI benchmarks plus supply disruptions to Asian buyers. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has since reduced near-term odds of territorial change, while broader macroeconomic factors such as Fed policy responses to potential inflation from oil volatility and Treasury yield movements continue to influence positioning. Upcoming catalysts include further diplomatic signals or renewed Gulf shipping incidents that could alter implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$3,119Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions since March 2026, including U.S. strikes on military assets at Kharg Island and threats to seize oil infrastructure handling roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, have shaped trader sentiment on these islands’ control. Kharg’s role as the primary export terminal and the islands’ strategic position near the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil transits—tie outcomes directly to energy market stability, with any shift risking sharp spikes in Brent and WTI benchmarks plus supply disruptions to Asian buyers. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has since reduced near-term odds of territorial change, while broader macroeconomic factors such as Fed policy responses to potential inflation from oil volatility and Treasury yield movements continue to influence positioning. Upcoming catalysts include further diplomatic signals or renewed Gulf shipping incidents that could alter implied probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы