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Мир·Ближний Восток

Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?

icon for Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?
Мир·Ближний Восток

Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?

Моджтаба Хаменеи 82.2%

Нет главы государства 4.4%

Реза Пехлеви 3.4%

Алиреза Арафи 2.4%

Polymarket

$38,628,405 Объем

Моджтаба Хаменеи 82.2%

Нет главы государства 4.4%

Реза Пехлеви 3.4%

Алиреза Арафи 2.4%

Polymarket

$38,628,405 Объем

Моджтаба Хаменеи

$6,035,943 Объем

82%

Нет главы государства

$1,148,676 Объем

4%

Реза Пехлеви

$672,396 Объем

3%

Алиреза Арафи

$2,311,688 Объем

2%

Махмуд Ахмадинежад

$1,120,634 Объем

2%

Хасан Рухани

$944,728 Объем

1%

Ахмад Вahidi

$776,835 Объем

1%

Масуд Пезешкиан

$1,020,011 Объем

1%

Мохаммад-Багер Калибаф

$918,080 Объем

1%

Хассан Хомейни

$1,425,383 Объем

1%

Мухаммад Мирбакири

$437,515 Объем

<1%

Аббас Арагчи

$833,512 Объем

<1%

Садег Лариджани

$535,395 Объем

<1%

Хассан Шариатмадари

$3,143,856 Объем

<1%

Марьям Раджави

$804,694 Объем

<1%

Массуд Раджави

$397,112 Объем

<1%

Сейед Хоссейн Мусавиан

$3,694,285 Объем

<1%

Реза Пирзаде

$145,282 Объем

<1%

Навид Шомали

$211,166 Объем

<1%

Мустафа Хиджри

$199,090 Объем

<1%

Али Мотахари

$835,738 Объем

<1%

Гулам-Али Хаддад-Адель

$433,132 Объем

<1%

Мостафа Пурмохаммади

$3,346,847 Объем

<1%

Садег Махсули

$239,173 Объем

<1%

Саид Джалили

$384,637 Объем

<1%

Мохаммад Хатами

$5,191,729 Объем

<1%

Мохсен Араки

$281,722 Объем

<1%

Насир Хоссейни

$254,387 Объем

<1%

Ахмад Хоссейни Хорасани

$306,671 Объем

<1%

Али Асгар Хеджази

$341,226 Объем

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s dominant market position stems from his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, amid U.S.-Israel strikes. The body reached consensus on Mojtaba in a rapid process that prioritized regime continuity and resistance to external pressure over traditional clerical norms against hereditary succession. As the incumbent, he has since consolidated authority through senior military and security appointments, including those announced in August 2026. Other listed figures, such as Alireza Arafi or reformist-leaning names, saw brief interim or speculative attention during the transition but lack comparable institutional backing or current influence. With no verified challenges, health events, or major policy shifts reported in the ensuing months, trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to Mojtaba remaining in office through year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Объем
$38,628,405
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s dominant market position stems from his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, amid U.S.-Israel strikes. The body reached consensus on Mojtaba in a rapid process that prioritized regime continuity and resistance to external pressure over traditional clerical norms against hereditary succession. As the incumbent, he has since consolidated authority through senior military and security appointments, including those announced in August 2026. Other listed figures, such as Alireza Arafi or reformist-leaning names, saw brief interim or speculative attention during the transition but lack comparable institutional backing or current influence. With no verified challenges, health events, or major policy shifts reported in the ensuing months, trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to Mojtaba remaining in office through year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Объем
$38,628,405
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Связанные

icon for Возглавит ли Реза Пехлеви Иран в 2026 году?

Возглавит ли Реза Пехлеви Иран в 2026 году?

3%
Да
icon for Будет ли Дельси Родригес фактическим лидером Венесуэлы к концу 2026 года?

Будет ли Дельси Родригес фактическим лидером Венесуэлы к концу 2026 года?

90%
Да
icon for Падёт ли иранский режим до 2027 года?

Падёт ли иранский режим до 2027 года?

7%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 32 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Моджтаба Хаменеи» с 82%, за ним следует «Нет главы государства» с 4%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 82¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 82%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $38.6 million с момента запуска рынка Feb 28, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?», просмотри 32 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» — «Моджтаба Хаменеи» с 82%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 82%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Нет главы государства» с 4%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.