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Мир·Ближний Восток

Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?

icon for Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?
Мир·Ближний Восток

Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?

Моджтаба Хаменеи 81.5%

Нет главы государства 4.8%

Реза Пехлеви 3.1%

Алиреза Арафи 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,565,628 Объем

Моджтаба Хаменеи 81.5%

Нет главы государства 4.8%

Реза Пехлеви 3.1%

Алиреза Арафи 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,565,628 Объем

Моджтаба Хаменеи

$6,001,053 Объем

82%

Нет главы государства

$1,147,038 Объем

5%

Реза Пехлеви

$668,976 Объем

3%

Алиреза Арафи

$2,311,577 Объем

2%

Хассан Хомейни

$1,425,272 Объем

1%

Ахмад Вahidi

$776,724 Объем

1%

Масуд Пезешкиан

$1,019,700 Объем

1%

Мохаммад-Багер Калибаф

$917,261 Объем

1%

Хасан Рухани

$936,317 Объем

<1%

Аббас Арагчи

$830,953 Объем

<1%

Мухаммад Мирбакири

$437,404 Объем

<1%

Махмуд Ахмадинежад

$1,112,752 Объем

<1%

Садег Лариджани

$534,784 Объем

<1%

Хассан Шариатмадари

$3,143,745 Объем

<1%

Марьям Раджави

$804,583 Объем

<1%

Массуд Раджави

$397,001 Объем

<1%

Сейед Хоссейн Мусавиан

$3,694,285 Объем

<1%

Реза Пирзаде

$145,171 Объем

<1%

Навид Шомали

$211,055 Объем

<1%

Мустафа Хиджри

$198,979 Объем

<1%

Али Мотахари

$835,627 Объем

<1%

Гулам-Али Хаддад-Адель

$433,021 Объем

<1%

Мостафа Пурмохаммади

$3,346,736 Объем

<1%

Садег Махсули

$239,062 Объем

<1%

Саид Джалили

$384,526 Объем

<1%

Мохаммад Хатами

$5,191,618 Объем

<1%

Мохсен Араки

$281,611 Объем

<1%

Насир Хоссейни

$254,276 Объем

<1%

Ахмад Хоссейни Хорасани

$306,560 Объем

<1%

Али Асгар Хеджази

$341,100 Объем

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming 81.5% implied probability as Iran’s leader at the end of 2026 because the Assembly of Experts selected him unanimously in March 2026 to succeed his assassinated father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes that triggered the succession process under Article 111 of the constitution. His elevation reflected his longstanding ties to the IRGC and Basij security apparatus, which positioned him as a continuity choice amid wartime pressures and foreign threats. Recent reports of his leg injuries sustained in the initial attacks, limited public appearances, and August 2026 concerns over deteriorating health have introduced modest uncertainty, keeping other figures such as interim council member Alireza Arafi or reformist-leaning clerics at single-digit odds while traders price in the risk of further instability before year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Объем
$38,565,628
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming 81.5% implied probability as Iran’s leader at the end of 2026 because the Assembly of Experts selected him unanimously in March 2026 to succeed his assassinated father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes that triggered the succession process under Article 111 of the constitution. His elevation reflected his longstanding ties to the IRGC and Basij security apparatus, which positioned him as a continuity choice amid wartime pressures and foreign threats. Recent reports of his leg injuries sustained in the initial attacks, limited public appearances, and August 2026 concerns over deteriorating health have introduced modest uncertainty, keeping other figures such as interim council member Alireza Arafi or reformist-leaning clerics at single-digit odds while traders price in the risk of further instability before year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Объем
$38,565,628
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Связанные

icon for Возглавит ли Реза Пехлеви Иран в 2026 году?

Возглавит ли Реза Пехлеви Иран в 2026 году?

3%
Да
icon for Будет ли Дельси Родригес фактическим лидером Венесуэлы к концу 2026 года?

Будет ли Дельси Родригес фактическим лидером Венесуэлы к концу 2026 года?

90%
Да
icon for Падёт ли иранский режим до 2027 года?

Падёт ли иранский режим до 2027 года?

7%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 32 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Моджтаба Хаменеи» с 82%, за ним следует «Нет главы государства» с 5%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 82¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 82%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $38.6 million с момента запуска рынка Feb 28, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?», просмотри 32 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» — «Моджтаба Хаменеи» с 82%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 82%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Нет главы государства» с 5%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.