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Мир·Ближний Восток

Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?

icon for Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?
Мир·Ближний Восток

Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?

Моджтаба Хаменеи 63.9%

Реза Пехлеви 7%

Мохаммад-Багер Калибаф 5.0%

Нет главы государства 2.8%

Polymarket

$8,268,775 Объем

Моджтаба Хаменеи 63.9%

Реза Пехлеви 7%

Мохаммад-Багер Калибаф 5.0%

Нет главы государства 2.8%

Polymarket

$8,268,775 Объем

Моджтаба Хаменеи

$2,067,810 Объем

64%

Реза Пехлеви

$206,220 Объем

7%

Мохаммад-Багер Калибаф

$227,966 Объем

5%

Нет главы государства

$460,072 Объем

3%

Аббас Арагчи

$185,754 Объем

2%

Хасан Рухани

$325,530 Объем

1%

Ахмад Вahidi

$271,365 Объем

1%

Алиреза Арафи

$833,426 Объем

1%

Марьям Раджави

$291,446 Объем

1%

Хассан Хомейни

$785,882 Объем

1%

Гулам-Али Хаддад-Адель

$63,677 Объем

1%

Массуд Раджави

$48,234 Объем

1%

Масуд Пезешкиан

$299,020 Объем

<1%

Махмуд Ахмадинежад

$111,646 Объем

<1%

Мохаммад Хатами

$420,949 Объем

<1%

Садег Лариджани

$195,597 Объем

<1%

Навид Шомали

$62,223 Объем

<1%

Али Асгар Хеджази

$87,111 Объем

<1%

Мухаммад Мирбакири

$290,404 Объем

<1%

Хассан Шариатмадари

$179,708 Объем

<1%

Реза Пирзаде

$49,642 Объем

<1%

Мостафа Пурмохаммади

$100,091 Объем

<1%

Саид Джалили

$80,707 Объем

<1%

Мохсен Араки

$64,445 Объем

<1%

Сейед Хоссейн Мусавиан

$52,715 Объем

<1%

Мустафа Хиджри

$33,414 Объем

<1%

Али Мотахари

$82,004 Объем

<1%

Садег Махсули

$71,898 Объем

<1%

Насир Хоссейни

$39,291 Объем

<1%

Ахмад Хоссейни Хорасани

$43,666 Объем

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered an expedited succession process by the Assembly of Experts, which elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March amid active conflict. Mojtaba's strong ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and perceived commitment to regime continuity have positioned him as the dominant outcome in trader assessments, reflecting the need for rapid internal consolidation during wartime. Reports of his injuries from the same attack, combined with limited public appearances and ongoing military exchanges, introduce uncertainty that sustains modest probabilities for alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf. This dynamic illustrates how external pressure and institutional preferences shape near-term leadership stability through the end of 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Объем
$8,268,775
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered an expedited succession process by the Assembly of Experts, which elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March amid active conflict. Mojtaba's strong ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and perceived commitment to regime continuity have positioned him as the dominant outcome in trader assessments, reflecting the need for rapid internal consolidation during wartime. Reports of his injuries from the same attack, combined with limited public appearances and ongoing military exchanges, introduce uncertainty that sustains modest probabilities for alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf. This dynamic illustrates how external pressure and institutional preferences shape near-term leadership stability through the end of 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Объем
$8,268,775
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 32 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Моджтаба Хаменеи» с 64%, за ним следует «Реза Пехлеви» с 7%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 64¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 64%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $8.3 million с момента запуска рынка Mar 1, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?», просмотри 32 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» — «Моджтаба Хаменеи» с 64%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 64%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Реза Пехлеви» с 7%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.