Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, intensified after 2025 military strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced mixed signals driving the closely contested 52% yes probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31. Recent diplomatic progress includes Iran's May signals of readiness to downblend stockpiles, limit enrichment to 3.5%, and transfer highly enriched uranium to a third country, alongside Axios reports of a potential memorandum for 30-day talks seeking a moratorium. However, trader caution stems from President Trump's rejection of Tehran's ceasefire proposal as "life support," Iran's firm insistence on short-term freezes versus US demands for 20 years, Netanyahu's calls for full removal, and a May 13 confirmation of no active talks amid escalation threats. Upcoming IAEA verification access or sanctions concessions could boost odds, while renewed strikes or stalled diplomacy might tip toward no.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$184,173 Объем
$184,173 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$184,173 Объем
$184,173 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, intensified after 2025 military strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced mixed signals driving the closely contested 52% yes probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31. Recent diplomatic progress includes Iran's May signals of readiness to downblend stockpiles, limit enrichment to 3.5%, and transfer highly enriched uranium to a third country, alongside Axios reports of a potential memorandum for 30-day talks seeking a moratorium. However, trader caution stems from President Trump's rejection of Tehran's ceasefire proposal as "life support," Iran's firm insistence on short-term freezes versus US demands for 20 years, Netanyahu's calls for full removal, and a May 13 confirmation of no active talks amid escalation threats. Upcoming IAEA verification access or sanctions concessions could boost odds, while renewed strikes or stalled diplomacy might tip toward no.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Объем
$184,173Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, intensified after 2025 military strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced mixed signals driving the closely contested 52% yes probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31. Recent diplomatic progress includes Iran's May signals of readiness to downblend stockpiles, limit enrichment to 3.5%, and transfer highly enriched uranium to a third country, alongside Axios reports of a potential memorandum for 30-day talks seeking a moratorium. However, trader caution stems from President Trump's rejection of Tehran's ceasefire proposal as "life support," Iran's firm insistence on short-term freezes versus US demands for 20 years, Netanyahu's calls for full removal, and a May 13 confirmation of no active talks amid escalation threats. Upcoming IAEA verification access or sanctions concessions could boost odds, while renewed strikes or stalled diplomacy might tip toward no.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$184,173Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, intensified after 2025 military strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced mixed signals driving the closely contested 52% yes probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31. Recent diplomatic progress includes Iran's May signals of readiness to downblend stockpiles, limit enrichment to 3.5%, and transfer highly enriched uranium to a third country, alongside Axios reports of a potential memorandum for 30-day talks seeking a moratorium. However, trader caution stems from President Trump's rejection of Tehran's ceasefire proposal as "life support," Iran's firm insistence on short-term freezes versus US demands for 20 years, Netanyahu's calls for full removal, and a May 13 confirmation of no active talks amid escalation threats. Upcoming IAEA verification access or sanctions concessions could boost odds, while renewed strikes or stalled diplomacy might tip toward no.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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