Iran's refusal to relinquish its uranium enrichment program underpins the 87.5% trader consensus against an agreement by December 31. The June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding, which called for down-blending stockpiles under IAEA supervision and further talks on enrichment limits within a 60-day window, collapsed after the period expired without extension; President Trump declared the MOU over in July. As of mid-September, Iranian officials including National Security Council head Mohsen Rezaei have signaled readiness to restore the June framework for ending hostilities and sanctions relief but explicitly reject reopening nuclear negotiations or offering new concessions on enrichment rights. IAEA reports confirm verification gaps persist amid damaged facilities and unmonitored stockpiles, while US demands for a full halt remain unmet. These entrenched positions, reinforced by recent public statements, sustain the low probability of resolution before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИран согласен прекратить обогащение урана к 31 декабря?
Иран согласен прекратить обогащение урана к 31 декабря?
Да
13% вероятность
$1,755,447 Объем
$1,755,447 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
13% вероятность
$1,755,447 Объем
$1,755,447 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's refusal to relinquish its uranium enrichment program underpins the 87.5% trader consensus against an agreement by December 31. The June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding, which called for down-blending stockpiles under IAEA supervision and further talks on enrichment limits within a 60-day window, collapsed after the period expired without extension; President Trump declared the MOU over in July. As of mid-September, Iranian officials including National Security Council head Mohsen Rezaei have signaled readiness to restore the June framework for ending hostilities and sanctions relief but explicitly reject reopening nuclear negotiations or offering new concessions on enrichment rights. IAEA reports confirm verification gaps persist amid damaged facilities and unmonitored stockpiles, while US demands for a full halt remain unmet. These entrenched positions, reinforced by recent public statements, sustain the low probability of resolution before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Объем
$1,755,447Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's refusal to relinquish its uranium enrichment program underpins the 87.5% trader consensus against an agreement by December 31. The June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding, which called for down-blending stockpiles under IAEA supervision and further talks on enrichment limits within a 60-day window, collapsed after the period expired without extension; President Trump declared the MOU over in July. As of mid-September, Iranian officials including National Security Council head Mohsen Rezaei have signaled readiness to restore the June framework for ending hostilities and sanctions relief but explicitly reject reopening nuclear negotiations or offering new concessions on enrichment rights. IAEA reports confirm verification gaps persist amid damaged facilities and unmonitored stockpiles, while US demands for a full halt remain unmet. These entrenched positions, reinforced by recent public statements, sustain the low probability of resolution before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,755,447Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Iran's refusal to relinquish its uranium enrichment program underpins the 87.5% trader consensus against an agreement by December 31. The June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding, which called for down-blending stockpiles under IAEA supervision and further talks on enrichment limits within a 60-day window, collapsed after the period expired without extension; President Trump declared the MOU over in July. As of mid-September, Iranian officials including National Security Council head Mohsen Rezaei have signaled readiness to restore the June framework for ending hostilities and sanctions relief but explicitly reject reopening nuclear negotiations or offering new concessions on enrichment rights. IAEA reports confirm verification gaps persist amid damaged facilities and unmonitored stockpiles, while US demands for a full halt remain unmet. These entrenched positions, reinforced by recent public statements, sustain the low probability of resolution before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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