US-Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and related sites, with entrances blocked and no verified resumption of enrichment activity reported by US officials or the IAEA. Iran retains a stockpile of up to 60% enriched uranium, much of it reportedly inaccessible or under rubble, while IAEA inspectors have lacked access to affected locations since mid-2025. Recent satellite imagery shows reconstruction at some weaponization compounds and fortification efforts, yet US assessments indicate roughly one year would be required for a weapon even if Tehran commits to a sprint. Ongoing diplomatic talks, sanctions pressure, and the risk of renewed strikes reinforce trader consensus that breakout remains unlikely before the 2027 threshold. Late surges in undetected tunnel work or shifts in Iranian leadership calculations could still alter timelines.