Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, creating multi-year setbacks to uranium enrichment capacity according to U.S. assessments and IAEA reporting. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, while officials from both sides stated no resumption of enrichment activities. Limited IAEA access and Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles remaining largely unrecovered under damaged sites have reinforced trader views that a verifiable weapons capability remains distant before 2027. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include accelerated reconstruction efforts at affected sites or major post-conflict policy changes by Iranian leadership that prioritize rapid weaponization.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Иранские ядерные испытания до 2027 года?
Да
5% вероятность
$246,407 Объем
$246,407 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
5% вероятность
$246,407 Объем
$246,407 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, creating multi-year setbacks to uranium enrichment capacity according to U.S. assessments and IAEA reporting. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, while officials from both sides stated no resumption of enrichment activities. Limited IAEA access and Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles remaining largely unrecovered under damaged sites have reinforced trader views that a verifiable weapons capability remains distant before 2027. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include accelerated reconstruction efforts at affected sites or major post-conflict policy changes by Iranian leadership that prioritize rapid weaponization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$246,407Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, creating multi-year setbacks to uranium enrichment capacity according to U.S. assessments and IAEA reporting. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, while officials from both sides stated no resumption of enrichment activities. Limited IAEA access and Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles remaining largely unrecovered under damaged sites have reinforced trader views that a verifiable weapons capability remains distant before 2027. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include accelerated reconstruction efforts at affected sites or major post-conflict policy changes by Iranian leadership that prioritize rapid weaponization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$246,407Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, creating multi-year setbacks to uranium enrichment capacity according to U.S. assessments and IAEA reporting. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, while officials from both sides stated no resumption of enrichment activities. Limited IAEA access and Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles remaining largely unrecovered under damaged sites have reinforced trader views that a verifiable weapons capability remains distant before 2027. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include accelerated reconstruction efforts at affected sites or major post-conflict policy changes by Iranian leadership that prioritize rapid weaponization.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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