Iranian officials and parliamentarians have repeatedly floated NPT withdrawal since early 2025 in response to sanctions snapbacks, IAEA resolutions, and 2026 military strikes on nuclear sites, with bills introduced in the Majlis and statements as recent as July 2026 calling for immediate exit. No formal notice or legislative passage has occurred, however, leaving Iran bound by its safeguards agreement and subject to ongoing IAEA verification activities despite compliance disputes. Analysts note that withdrawal would forfeit access to peaceful nuclear cooperation, intensify isolation, and remove remaining diplomatic leverage, while historical precedent shows Tehran using such rhetoric for bargaining without following through. With only months remaining before 2027 and no new escalation triggering action, trader consensus reflects these structural and procedural barriers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВыйдет ли Иран из ДНЯО до 2027 года?
Выйдет ли Иран из ДНЯО до 2027 года?
Да
11% вероятность
$321,040 Объем
$321,040 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
11% вероятность
$321,040 Объем
$321,040 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and parliamentarians have repeatedly floated NPT withdrawal since early 2025 in response to sanctions snapbacks, IAEA resolutions, and 2026 military strikes on nuclear sites, with bills introduced in the Majlis and statements as recent as July 2026 calling for immediate exit. No formal notice or legislative passage has occurred, however, leaving Iran bound by its safeguards agreement and subject to ongoing IAEA verification activities despite compliance disputes. Analysts note that withdrawal would forfeit access to peaceful nuclear cooperation, intensify isolation, and remove remaining diplomatic leverage, while historical precedent shows Tehran using such rhetoric for bargaining without following through. With only months remaining before 2027 and no new escalation triggering action, trader consensus reflects these structural and procedural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Объем
$321,040Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and parliamentarians have repeatedly floated NPT withdrawal since early 2025 in response to sanctions snapbacks, IAEA resolutions, and 2026 military strikes on nuclear sites, with bills introduced in the Majlis and statements as recent as July 2026 calling for immediate exit. No formal notice or legislative passage has occurred, however, leaving Iran bound by its safeguards agreement and subject to ongoing IAEA verification activities despite compliance disputes. Analysts note that withdrawal would forfeit access to peaceful nuclear cooperation, intensify isolation, and remove remaining diplomatic leverage, while historical precedent shows Tehran using such rhetoric for bargaining without following through. With only months remaining before 2027 and no new escalation triggering action, trader consensus reflects these structural and procedural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$321,040Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian officials and parliamentarians have repeatedly floated NPT withdrawal since early 2025 in response to sanctions snapbacks, IAEA resolutions, and 2026 military strikes on nuclear sites, with bills introduced in the Majlis and statements as recent as July 2026 calling for immediate exit. No formal notice or legislative passage has occurred, however, leaving Iran bound by its safeguards agreement and subject to ongoing IAEA verification activities despite compliance disputes. Analysts note that withdrawal would forfeit access to peaceful nuclear cooperation, intensify isolation, and remove remaining diplomatic leverage, while historical precedent shows Tehran using such rhetoric for bargaining without following through. With only months remaining before 2027 and no new escalation triggering action, trader consensus reflects these structural and procedural barriers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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