Trader consensus prices "No" at 93% on Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, reflecting skepticism toward Tehran's repeated rhetorical threats amid escalating military tensions. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and facilities—prompting a fresh threat five days ago—have revived parliamentary discussions on exit, as seen in March actions post-attacks, yet Iran submitted working papers to the 2026 NPT Review Conference and plans participation, signaling continued adherence. IAEA safeguards reports confirm ongoing compliance obligations, while historical patterns since 2004 show threats without action, deterred by isolation risks, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures; late-breaking escalations or regime shifts could alter odds before the January 1, 2027 resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВыйдет ли Иран из ДНЯО до 2027 года?
Выйдет ли Иран из ДНЯО до 2027 года?
Да
$119,499 Объем
$119,499 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$119,499 Объем
$119,499 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 93% on Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, reflecting skepticism toward Tehran's repeated rhetorical threats amid escalating military tensions. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and facilities—prompting a fresh threat five days ago—have revived parliamentary discussions on exit, as seen in March actions post-attacks, yet Iran submitted working papers to the 2026 NPT Review Conference and plans participation, signaling continued adherence. IAEA safeguards reports confirm ongoing compliance obligations, while historical patterns since 2004 show threats without action, deterred by isolation risks, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures; late-breaking escalations or regime shifts could alter odds before the January 1, 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Объем
$119,499Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 93% on Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, reflecting skepticism toward Tehran's repeated rhetorical threats amid escalating military tensions. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and facilities—prompting a fresh threat five days ago—have revived parliamentary discussions on exit, as seen in March actions post-attacks, yet Iran submitted working papers to the 2026 NPT Review Conference and plans participation, signaling continued adherence. IAEA safeguards reports confirm ongoing compliance obligations, while historical patterns since 2004 show threats without action, deterred by isolation risks, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures; late-breaking escalations or regime shifts could alter odds before the January 1, 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$119,499Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 93% on Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, reflecting skepticism toward Tehran's repeated rhetorical threats amid escalating military tensions. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and facilities—prompting a fresh threat five days ago—have revived parliamentary discussions on exit, as seen in March actions post-attacks, yet Iran submitted working papers to the 2026 NPT Review Conference and plans participation, signaling continued adherence. IAEA safeguards reports confirm ongoing compliance obligations, while historical patterns since 2004 show threats without action, deterred by isolation risks, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures; late-breaking escalations or regime shifts could alter odds before the January 1, 2027 resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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