Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including recent airstrikes and the establishment of a buffer zone, continue to shape low trader expectations for a full withdrawal by mid-2026. A truce reached in April has held amid sporadic violations, yet Israel conditions any pullback on Hezbollah's complete disarmament and lasting security arrangements along the border. Lebanese officials have rejected buffer zones or partial retreats ahead of bilateral talks scheduled for May 17 in Washington, which will address troop withdrawals, prisoner exchanges, and reconstruction. UN Security Council discussions on resolution 1701 implementation and the drawdown of UNIFIL by December 2026 add further context to the timeline. These intertwined security demands and negotiation dynamics explain the market's assessment of limited near-term progress.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИзраиль уходит из Ливана...?
Израиль уходит из Ливана...?
$1,488,529 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
31 мая
1%
30 июня
10%
$1,488,529 Объем
31 мая
$1,214,558 Объем
1%
30 июня
$198,965 Объем
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including recent airstrikes and the establishment of a buffer zone, continue to shape low trader expectations for a full withdrawal by mid-2026. A truce reached in April has held amid sporadic violations, yet Israel conditions any pullback on Hezbollah's complete disarmament and lasting security arrangements along the border. Lebanese officials have rejected buffer zones or partial retreats ahead of bilateral talks scheduled for May 17 in Washington, which will address troop withdrawals, prisoner exchanges, and reconstruction. UN Security Council discussions on resolution 1701 implementation and the drawdown of UNIFIL by December 2026 add further context to the timeline. These intertwined security demands and negotiation dynamics explain the market's assessment of limited near-term progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Объем
$1,488,529Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including recent airstrikes and the establishment of a buffer zone, continue to shape low trader expectations for a full withdrawal by mid-2026. A truce reached in April has held amid sporadic violations, yet Israel conditions any pullback on Hezbollah's complete disarmament and lasting security arrangements along the border. Lebanese officials have rejected buffer zones or partial retreats ahead of bilateral talks scheduled for May 17 in Washington, which will address troop withdrawals, prisoner exchanges, and reconstruction. UN Security Council discussions on resolution 1701 implementation and the drawdown of UNIFIL by December 2026 add further context to the timeline. These intertwined security demands and negotiation dynamics explain the market's assessment of limited near-term progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Объем
$1,488,529Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including recent airstrikes and the establishment of a buffer zone, continue to shape low trader expectations for a full withdrawal by mid-2026. A truce reached in April has held amid sporadic violations, yet Israel conditions any pullback on Hezbollah's complete disarmament and lasting security arrangements along the border. Lebanese officials have rejected buffer zones or partial retreats ahead of bilateral talks scheduled for May 17 in Washington, which will address troop withdrawals, prisoner exchanges, and reconstruction. UN Security Council discussions on resolution 1701 implementation and the drawdown of UNIFIL by December 2026 add further context to the timeline. These intertwined security demands and negotiation dynamics explain the market's assessment of limited near-term progress.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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