Recent US-brokered ceasefire talks between Israel and Lebanon, including pilot security zones and contingent de-escalation terms announced in early June 2026, have eased immediate threats around Beirut despite ongoing limited strikes in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah's rejection of some elements and continued cross-border activity have not triggered the broad escalation or direct attacks on the capital that would necessitate full embassy evacuation. The State Department has maintained core operations following earlier non-emergency personnel drawdowns, with security alerts focused on citizen travel rather than diplomatic withdrawal. This trader consensus on "No" at 95.7% reflects the absence of verifiable major escalatory events in the past month. A sudden Hezbollah rocket barrage on Beirut or collapse of the fragile truce could still alter the timeline before June 30.