Tensions between Israel and Iran persist amid a fragile ceasefire established in early April 2026 through Pakistan-mediated talks, though direct U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad collapsed without resolving core disputes over Tehran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-May, Washington continues to await a formal Iranian response to proposals for an interim deal that could open pathways to broader diplomacy, while recent clashes and mutual rejections of terms have heightened risks of renewed escalation. Israeli priorities center on neutralizing proxy threats from groups like Hezbollah, complicating any path to a permanent bilateral agreement. Market pricing reflects these diplomatic hurdles and the absence of verifiable breakthroughs in the past month.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$883,233 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
May 31
3%
30 июня
16%
$883,233 Объем
May 31
$250,637 Объем
3%
30 июня
$317,982 Объем
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tensions between Israel and Iran persist amid a fragile ceasefire established in early April 2026 through Pakistan-mediated talks, though direct U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad collapsed without resolving core disputes over Tehran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-May, Washington continues to await a formal Iranian response to proposals for an interim deal that could open pathways to broader diplomacy, while recent clashes and mutual rejections of terms have heightened risks of renewed escalation. Israeli priorities center on neutralizing proxy threats from groups like Hezbollah, complicating any path to a permanent bilateral agreement. Market pricing reflects these diplomatic hurdles and the absence of verifiable breakthroughs in the past month.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Объем
$883,233Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tensions between Israel and Iran persist amid a fragile ceasefire established in early April 2026 through Pakistan-mediated talks, though direct U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad collapsed without resolving core disputes over Tehran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-May, Washington continues to await a formal Iranian response to proposals for an interim deal that could open pathways to broader diplomacy, while recent clashes and mutual rejections of terms have heightened risks of renewed escalation. Israeli priorities center on neutralizing proxy threats from groups like Hezbollah, complicating any path to a permanent bilateral agreement. Market pricing reflects these diplomatic hurdles and the absence of verifiable breakthroughs in the past month.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$883,233Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between Israel and Iran persist amid a fragile ceasefire established in early April 2026 through Pakistan-mediated talks, though direct U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad collapsed without resolving core disputes over Tehran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-May, Washington continues to await a formal Iranian response to proposals for an interim deal that could open pathways to broader diplomacy, while recent clashes and mutual rejections of terms have heightened risks of renewed escalation. Israeli priorities center on neutralizing proxy threats from groups like Hezbollah, complicating any path to a permanent bilateral agreement. Market pricing reflects these diplomatic hurdles and the absence of verifiable breakthroughs in the past month.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы