The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after suppressing nationwide protests from late 2025 through early 2026, combined with rapid leadership continuity following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February, underpins the 98.4% trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Security forces showed no widespread defections during the unrest, while economic pressures and limited subsequent demonstrations have not escalated into coordinated challenges capable of toppling the Islamic Republic in the narrow remaining window. A ceasefire in April further stabilized the internal security environment. Realistic shifts in odds would require sudden elite fractures, renewed mass protests triggering institutional breakdown, or major external escalation within weeks, though current reporting indicates low near-term likelihood of such catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПадет ли иранский режим к 30 сентября?
Падет ли иранский режим к 30 сентября?
Да
2% вероятность
$1,638,806 Объем
$1,638,806 Объем
29 сент. 2026 г.
Да
2% вероятность
$1,638,806 Объем
$1,638,806 Объем
29 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after suppressing nationwide protests from late 2025 through early 2026, combined with rapid leadership continuity following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February, underpins the 98.4% trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Security forces showed no widespread defections during the unrest, while economic pressures and limited subsequent demonstrations have not escalated into coordinated challenges capable of toppling the Islamic Republic in the narrow remaining window. A ceasefire in April further stabilized the internal security environment. Realistic shifts in odds would require sudden elite fractures, renewed mass protests triggering institutional breakdown, or major external escalation within weeks, though current reporting indicates low near-term likelihood of such catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Объем
$1,638,806Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after suppressing nationwide protests from late 2025 through early 2026, combined with rapid leadership continuity following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February, underpins the 98.4% trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Security forces showed no widespread defections during the unrest, while economic pressures and limited subsequent demonstrations have not escalated into coordinated challenges capable of toppling the Islamic Republic in the narrow remaining window. A ceasefire in April further stabilized the internal security environment. Realistic shifts in odds would require sudden elite fractures, renewed mass protests triggering institutional breakdown, or major external escalation within weeks, though current reporting indicates low near-term likelihood of such catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,638,806Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after suppressing nationwide protests from late 2025 through early 2026, combined with rapid leadership continuity following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February, underpins the 98.4% trader consensus against collapse by September 30. Security forces showed no widespread defections during the unrest, while economic pressures and limited subsequent demonstrations have not escalated into coordinated challenges capable of toppling the Islamic Republic in the narrow remaining window. A ceasefire in April further stabilized the internal security environment. Realistic shifts in odds would require sudden elite fractures, renewed mass protests triggering institutional breakdown, or major external escalation within weeks, though current reporting indicates low near-term likelihood of such catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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