**Ongoing low but non-zero traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reflects Iranian efforts to assert control via route restrictions, coordination requirements, and enforcement by the IRGC, alongside U.S. sanctions and blockade measures that have curtailed Iranian crude exports since the February 2026 conflict escalation.** Since the initial closure announcement in early March 2026, daily commercial transits have fallen from pre-crisis averages of roughly 100–130 vessels to often fewer than 20, with recent weeks showing around 5–15 crossings amid route uncertainty, dark (AIS-disabled) movements, and shadow-fleet activity. Iran has channeled traffic through vetted northern routes under a Persian Gulf Strait Authority framework, imposed high per-vessel fees, and issued warnings against southern or unauthorized paths, while periodic drone or projectile incidents have targeted non-compliant vessels. U.S. Central Command has supported limited escorted or facilitated transits and maintained pressure through sanctions that have kept Iranian oil flows near zero in recent reporting periods, though some LPG, product, and rerouted tankers continue limited movements. War-risk insurance multiples remain elevated (around 40× normal), stranding hundreds of vessels and crews inside the Gulf and deterring standard commercial routing. Recent developments through late August 2026 include ongoing mine hazards, additional vessel strikes, and statements from Iranian officials that passage requires Tehran’s coordination, with no full restoration of pre-war freedom of navigation despite interim understandings. Key variables for any complete daily shutdown include further kinetic exchanges, shifts in U.S. sanctions policy, successful diplomatic arrangements involving Oman or Gulf states, or changes in carrier risk tolerance that could eliminate the remaining trickle of transits.