Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, including blockades, mine threats, and targeted strikes on tankers, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits severely suppressed near 4–6 vessels per day in late August 2026, producing weekly totals squarely in the 20–39 range. Kpler and JMIC data confirm commodity vessel crossings remained in single digits on most days around August 31, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 80–130 daily, as operators rerouted or idled amid elevated war-risk premiums and route uncertainty. This skin-in-the-game consensus in the 98.6% outcome reflects the durable impact of enforcement actions and sanctions on commercial flows. A credible de-escalation or verified safe corridor could lift volumes above that band, while intensified attacks might push counts lower.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 31 августа?
Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 31 августа?
20-39 99.6%
<20 <1%
40-59 <1%
60-79 <1%
$53,438 Объем
$53,438 Объем
6 сент. 2026 г.
<20
No
20-39
Yes
40-59
No
60-79
No
80+
No
20-39 99.6%
<20 <1%
40-59 <1%
60-79 <1%
$53,438 Объем
$53,438 Объем
6 сент. 2026 г.
<20
$16,379 Объем
No
20-39
$27,890 Объем
Yes
40-59
$5,299 Объем
No
60-79
$2,356 Объем
No
80+
$1,513 Объем
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, including blockades, mine threats, and targeted strikes on tankers, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits severely suppressed near 4–6 vessels per day in late August 2026, producing weekly totals squarely in the 20–39 range. Kpler and JMIC data confirm commodity vessel crossings remained in single digits on most days around August 31, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 80–130 daily, as operators rerouted or idled amid elevated war-risk premiums and route uncertainty. This skin-in-the-game consensus in the 98.6% outcome reflects the durable impact of enforcement actions and sanctions on commercial flows. A credible de-escalation or verified safe corridor could lift volumes above that band, while intensified attacks might push counts lower.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Объем
$53,438Дата окончания
6 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, including blockades, mine threats, and targeted strikes on tankers, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits severely suppressed near 4–6 vessels per day in late August 2026, producing weekly totals squarely in the 20–39 range. Kpler and JMIC data confirm commodity vessel crossings remained in single digits on most days around August 31, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 80–130 daily, as operators rerouted or idled amid elevated war-risk premiums and route uncertainty. This skin-in-the-game consensus in the 98.6% outcome reflects the durable impact of enforcement actions and sanctions on commercial flows. A credible de-escalation or verified safe corridor could lift volumes above that band, while intensified attacks might push counts lower.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$53,438Дата окончания
6 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, including blockades, mine threats, and targeted strikes on tankers, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits severely suppressed near 4–6 vessels per day in late August 2026, producing weekly totals squarely in the 20–39 range. Kpler and JMIC data confirm commodity vessel crossings remained in single digits on most days around August 31, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 80–130 daily, as operators rerouted or idled amid elevated war-risk premiums and route uncertainty. This skin-in-the-game consensus in the 98.6% outcome reflects the durable impact of enforcement actions and sanctions on commercial flows. A credible de-escalation or verified safe corridor could lift volumes above that band, while intensified attacks might push counts lower.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы