**Heightened geopolitical risks from Houthi advances and control over key Bab el-Mandeb positions have driven sharply lower vessel transits, supporting the market-implied 67% probability for fewer than 170 ships in the week of September 14.** Recent seizures of Perim Island and Mokha around September 10–12, combined with ongoing threats and a Saudi shipping blockade, prompted many operators to maintain diversions around the Cape of Good Hope despite modest carrier restarts by Maersk, MSC, and Cosco on select Asia-Europe services. Daily AIS-tracked crossings have hovered in the low-to-mid 20s in mid-September periods, well below pre-crisis baselines near 50 vessels per day and consistent with weekly totals suppressed 40% or more. Elevated war-risk premiums (0.5–1% of hull value) and selective targeting of certain flags further deter volume, while some protective AIS messaging and limited returns reflect cautious testing of the route. Upcoming catalysts include further security assessments and any escalation in Red Sea fighting that could widen the gap between trader consensus and baseline recovery expectations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив за неделю до 14 сентября?
Сколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив за неделю до 14 сентября?
<170 73%
190-209 9%
170-189 5%
210-229 4%
$14,122 Объем
$14,122 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
<170
68%
170-189
9%
190-209
9%
210-229
4%
230+
3%
<170 73%
190-209 9%
170-189 5%
210-229 4%
$14,122 Объем
$14,122 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
<170
$5,799 Объем
68%
170-189
$2,746 Объем
9%
190-209
$2,731 Объем
9%
210-229
$1,367 Объем
4%
230+
$1,479 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Heightened geopolitical risks from Houthi advances and control over key Bab el-Mandeb positions have driven sharply lower vessel transits, supporting the market-implied 67% probability for fewer than 170 ships in the week of September 14.** Recent seizures of Perim Island and Mokha around September 10–12, combined with ongoing threats and a Saudi shipping blockade, prompted many operators to maintain diversions around the Cape of Good Hope despite modest carrier restarts by Maersk, MSC, and Cosco on select Asia-Europe services. Daily AIS-tracked crossings have hovered in the low-to-mid 20s in mid-September periods, well below pre-crisis baselines near 50 vessels per day and consistent with weekly totals suppressed 40% or more. Elevated war-risk premiums (0.5–1% of hull value) and selective targeting of certain flags further deter volume, while some protective AIS messaging and limited returns reflect cautious testing of the route. Upcoming catalysts include further security assessments and any escalation in Red Sea fighting that could widen the gap between trader consensus and baseline recovery expectations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Открытие рынка: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Объем
$14,122Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Heightened geopolitical risks from Houthi advances and control over key Bab el-Mandeb positions have driven sharply lower vessel transits, supporting the market-implied 67% probability for fewer than 170 ships in the week of September 14.** Recent seizures of Perim Island and Mokha around September 10–12, combined with ongoing threats and a Saudi shipping blockade, prompted many operators to maintain diversions around the Cape of Good Hope despite modest carrier restarts by Maersk, MSC, and Cosco on select Asia-Europe services. Daily AIS-tracked crossings have hovered in the low-to-mid 20s in mid-September periods, well below pre-crisis baselines near 50 vessels per day and consistent with weekly totals suppressed 40% or more. Elevated war-risk premiums (0.5–1% of hull value) and selective targeting of certain flags further deter volume, while some protective AIS messaging and limited returns reflect cautious testing of the route. Upcoming catalysts include further security assessments and any escalation in Red Sea fighting that could widen the gap between trader consensus and baseline recovery expectations.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$14,122Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Heightened geopolitical risks from Houthi advances and control over key Bab el-Mandeb positions have driven sharply lower vessel transits, supporting the market-implied 67% probability for fewer than 170 ships in the week of September 14.** Recent seizures of Perim Island and Mokha around September 10–12, combined with ongoing threats and a Saudi shipping blockade, prompted many operators to maintain diversions around the Cape of Good Hope despite modest carrier restarts by Maersk, MSC, and Cosco on select Asia-Europe services. Daily AIS-tracked crossings have hovered in the low-to-mid 20s in mid-September periods, well below pre-crisis baselines near 50 vessels per day and consistent with weekly totals suppressed 40% or more. Elevated war-risk premiums (0.5–1% of hull value) and selective targeting of certain flags further deter volume, while some protective AIS messaging and limited returns reflect cautious testing of the route. Upcoming catalysts include further security assessments and any escalation in Red Sea fighting that could widen the gap between trader consensus and baseline recovery expectations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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