Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a widely reported coup attempt in Iran by June 30 at just 9.5% YES (90.5% NO), reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)'s firm consolidation of power following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination and Mojtaba Khamenei's March succession amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war. Unverified April rumors of IRGC house arrests targeting Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—pushed by anti-regime sources—faded without evidence, as officials dismissed foreign-backed plots and refocused on external pressures like the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and May 7-8 airstrikes. Recent Pakistan-mediated ceasefire talks, Ghalibaf's May 6 call for Basij mobilization against economic unrest, and regime preparations for inflation underscore internal stability priorities over factional upheaval, though late escalations or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$1,114,921 Объем
$1,114,921 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$1,114,921 Объем
$1,114,921 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a widely reported coup attempt in Iran by June 30 at just 9.5% YES (90.5% NO), reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)'s firm consolidation of power following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination and Mojtaba Khamenei's March succession amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war. Unverified April rumors of IRGC house arrests targeting Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—pushed by anti-regime sources—faded without evidence, as officials dismissed foreign-backed plots and refocused on external pressures like the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and May 7-8 airstrikes. Recent Pakistan-mediated ceasefire talks, Ghalibaf's May 6 call for Basij mobilization against economic unrest, and regime preparations for inflation underscore internal stability priorities over factional upheaval, though late escalations or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Объем
$1,114,921Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a widely reported coup attempt in Iran by June 30 at just 9.5% YES (90.5% NO), reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)'s firm consolidation of power following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination and Mojtaba Khamenei's March succession amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war. Unverified April rumors of IRGC house arrests targeting Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—pushed by anti-regime sources—faded without evidence, as officials dismissed foreign-backed plots and refocused on external pressures like the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and May 7-8 airstrikes. Recent Pakistan-mediated ceasefire talks, Ghalibaf's May 6 call for Basij mobilization against economic unrest, and regime preparations for inflation underscore internal stability priorities over factional upheaval, though late escalations or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,114,921Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a widely reported coup attempt in Iran by June 30 at just 9.5% YES (90.5% NO), reflecting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)'s firm consolidation of power following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination and Mojtaba Khamenei's March succession amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war. Unverified April rumors of IRGC house arrests targeting Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—pushed by anti-regime sources—faded without evidence, as officials dismissed foreign-backed plots and refocused on external pressures like the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and May 7-8 airstrikes. Recent Pakistan-mediated ceasefire talks, Ghalibaf's May 6 call for Basij mobilization against economic unrest, and regime preparations for inflation underscore internal stability priorities over factional upheaval, though late escalations or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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