**Iran's post-war leadership transition and internal power struggles have shaped trader views on coup risks through late 2026.** Following the February 2026 US-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime swiftly installed his son Mojtaba as successor via the Assembly of Experts, signaling continuity despite economic pressures, suppressed protests from late 2025 into early 2026, and a fragile ceasefire. In July 2026, hardliners publicly accused President Pezeshkian and allies like Ghalibaf of sidelining parliament and plotting against Mojtaba amid US truce talks and Strait of Hormuz negotiations, though these claims remain unverified rhetoric without evidence of an organized attempt. Traders price a low probability of a widely reported coup attempt by year-end, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience, military cohesion, and institutional mechanisms for succession amid ongoing diplomatic brinkmanship.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$2,115,813 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 декабря
12%
$2,115,813 Объем
31 декабря
$74,587 Объем
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran's post-war leadership transition and internal power struggles have shaped trader views on coup risks through late 2026.** Following the February 2026 US-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime swiftly installed his son Mojtaba as successor via the Assembly of Experts, signaling continuity despite economic pressures, suppressed protests from late 2025 into early 2026, and a fragile ceasefire. In July 2026, hardliners publicly accused President Pezeshkian and allies like Ghalibaf of sidelining parliament and plotting against Mojtaba amid US truce talks and Strait of Hormuz negotiations, though these claims remain unverified rhetoric without evidence of an organized attempt. Traders price a low probability of a widely reported coup attempt by year-end, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience, military cohesion, and institutional mechanisms for succession amid ongoing diplomatic brinkmanship.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Объем
$2,115,813Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran's post-war leadership transition and internal power struggles have shaped trader views on coup risks through late 2026.** Following the February 2026 US-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime swiftly installed his son Mojtaba as successor via the Assembly of Experts, signaling continuity despite economic pressures, suppressed protests from late 2025 into early 2026, and a fragile ceasefire. In July 2026, hardliners publicly accused President Pezeshkian and allies like Ghalibaf of sidelining parliament and plotting against Mojtaba amid US truce talks and Strait of Hormuz negotiations, though these claims remain unverified rhetoric without evidence of an organized attempt. Traders price a low probability of a widely reported coup attempt by year-end, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience, military cohesion, and institutional mechanisms for succession amid ongoing diplomatic brinkmanship.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,115,813Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Iran's post-war leadership transition and internal power struggles have shaped trader views on coup risks through late 2026.** Following the February 2026 US-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime swiftly installed his son Mojtaba as successor via the Assembly of Experts, signaling continuity despite economic pressures, suppressed protests from late 2025 into early 2026, and a fragile ceasefire. In July 2026, hardliners publicly accused President Pezeshkian and allies like Ghalibaf of sidelining parliament and plotting against Mojtaba amid US truce talks and Strait of Hormuz negotiations, though these claims remain unverified rhetoric without evidence of an organized attempt. Traders price a low probability of a widely reported coup attempt by year-end, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience, military cohesion, and institutional mechanisms for succession amid ongoing diplomatic brinkmanship.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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