Israel’s Supreme Court ruled unanimously in June 2024 that longstanding exemptions for full-time Haredi yeshiva students lack legal basis, ordering the IDF to begin conscription and ending related state funding. Coalition attempts to enact a replacement law preserving broad exemptions have repeatedly stalled amid internal disputes, with Haredi parties rejecting drafts that impose meaningful enlistment targets or sanctions. As of mid-2026 the bill remains set aside, while court monitoring and contempt proceedings pressure enforcement instead. With Knesset elections possibly approaching in September and no majority secured for a revised exemption framework, the window for formal legislation by the September 30, 2026 deadline remains closed. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and legislative inertia.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is formally enacted into Israeli law that allows for exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s Supreme Court ruled unanimously in June 2024 that longstanding exemptions for full-time Haredi yeshiva students lack legal basis, ordering the IDF to begin conscription and ending related state funding. Coalition attempts to enact a replacement law preserving broad exemptions have repeatedly stalled amid internal disputes, with Haredi parties rejecting drafts that impose meaningful enlistment targets or sanctions. As of mid-2026 the bill remains set aside, while court monitoring and contempt proceedings pressure enforcement instead. With Knesset elections possibly approaching in September and no majority secured for a revised exemption framework, the window for formal legislation by the September 30, 2026 deadline remains closed. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and legislative inertia.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is formally enacted into Israeli law that allows for exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 29, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Объем
$2,197Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is formally enacted into Israeli law that allows for exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s Supreme Court ruled unanimously in June 2024 that longstanding exemptions for full-time Haredi yeshiva students lack legal basis, ordering the IDF to begin conscription and ending related state funding. Coalition attempts to enact a replacement law preserving broad exemptions have repeatedly stalled amid internal disputes, with Haredi parties rejecting drafts that impose meaningful enlistment targets or sanctions. As of mid-2026 the bill remains set aside, while court monitoring and contempt proceedings pressure enforcement instead. With Knesset elections possibly approaching in September and no majority secured for a revised exemption framework, the window for formal legislation by the September 30, 2026 deadline remains closed. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and legislative inertia.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is formally enacted into Israeli law that allows for exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For purposes of this market, “ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students” refers to ultra-Orthodox or Haredi Israelis who attend a yeshiva or equivalent Torah-study institution.
A qualifying law must provide a legal framework under which some or all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students are legally able to avoid immediate mandatory military conscription due to their status as yeshiva students, full-time religious students, or an equivalent category. Laws which allow ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to defer military service while they are studying in yeshiva will qualify.
A law may qualify even if it does not provide a blanket exemption for all ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, provided it enables exemption from, or deferment of, mandatory military service for some ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as yeshiva students.
A law that changes general military service requirements will not qualify unless it includes provisions specifically allowing exemptions from, or deferments of, mandatory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students due to their status as Yeshiva students.
A proposal, preliminary Knesset vote, or other action which does not constitute enactment will not be sufficient unless the relevant law is formally enacted by the specified date.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Knesset and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$2,197Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel’s Supreme Court ruled unanimously in June 2024 that longstanding exemptions for full-time Haredi yeshiva students lack legal basis, ordering the IDF to begin conscription and ending related state funding. Coalition attempts to enact a replacement law preserving broad exemptions have repeatedly stalled amid internal disputes, with Haredi parties rejecting drafts that impose meaningful enlistment targets or sanctions. As of mid-2026 the bill remains set aside, while court monitoring and contempt proceedings pressure enforcement instead. With Knesset elections possibly approaching in September and no majority secured for a revised exemption framework, the window for formal legislation by the September 30, 2026 deadline remains closed. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and legislative inertia.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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