Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Recent Cairo talks have produced an effective rejection by Hamas of core disarmament elements in the U.S.-backed Gaza peace plan, stalling movement into phase two of the October 2025 ceasefire. Hamas conditions any discussion of weapons handover or demilitarization on full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, complete implementation of phase-one terms, and an end to reported violations. The Board of Peace, led by envoy Nickolay Mladenov, has presented phased proposals involving heavy-weapons surrender and tunnel mapping, yet mediators note persistent deadlock. Ongoing low-level incidents, including Israeli strikes, and international stabilization-force planning continue to shape negotiations without resolution on timelines or guarantees.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Recent Cairo talks have produced an effective rejection by Hamas of core disarmament elements in the U.S.-backed Gaza peace plan, stalling movement into phase two of the October 2025 ceasefire. Hamas conditions any discussion of weapons handover or demilitarization on full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, complete implementation of phase-one terms, and an end to reported violations. The Board of Peace, led by envoy Nickolay Mladenov, has presented phased proposals involving heavy-weapons surrender and tunnel mapping, yet mediators note persistent deadlock. Ongoing low-level incidents, including Israeli strikes, and international stabilization-force planning continue to shape negotiations without resolution on timelines or guarantees.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Jun 30 2026
Mediators Propose Phased Disarmament Plan to Revive Peace Process
In a bid to revive the stalled peace plan, mediators proposed a phased disarmament schedule, but intelligence assessments confirmed Hamas has no intention of actually disarming.
Jun 27 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vows continued military presence in Gaza and surrounding areas
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Netanyahu's statement that Israeli forces will remain in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria 'as long as required' signaled ongoing conflict and security concerns, reducing the likelihood of Hamas disarming by the June 30, 2026 deadline and depressing market prices.
Jun 26 2026
Hamas Launches Brutal Crackdown to Suppress June 26 Protests
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Hamas deployed armed guards, police, and militias to crush planned anti-Hamas protests across Gaza, where organizers had called on the group to disarm and cede power.
Jun 26 2026
Israel and Lebanon sign US-brokered peace agreement
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%4%
A peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon brokered by the US was signed, but Hezbollah's rejection and warnings of civil war indicated ongoing instability and resistance to disarmament, contributing to market skepticism about Hamas disarming by June 30, 2026.
Jun 25 2026
Gazans plan large anti-Hamas protest amid stagnation and disarmament deadlock
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Palestinians in Gaza organized a significant protest against Hamas's governance amid ongoing hardships and stalled peace efforts. The protest highlighted internal dissent but did not translate into Hamas disarming, reinforcing market skepticism about disarmament by June 30, 2026.
Jun 23 2026
Board of Peace Demands Complete Disarmament of Hamas
Ceasefire talks faced a severe test after the High Representative of the Board of Peace demanded that Gaza be completely free of any weapons, down to a single bullet.
Jun 15 2026
EU fails to agree on sanctions against Israeli official amid Gaza conflict
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
The European Union's failure to sanction Israeli official Ben Gvir despite pressure highlighted ongoing international divisions and lack of progress toward peace or disarmament in the region, negatively impacting market confidence in Hamas disarmament by June 30, 2026.
Jun 10 2026
Gaza Peace Talks Stall Over Hamas Disarmament Demands
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%4%
Negotiations to finalize a lasting peace in Gaza hit a critical impasse as Hamas resisted total surrender and proposed only a symbolic handover of weapons, which Israel categorically rejected.
Jun 9 2026
Mediators propose gradual Hamas disarmament linked to phased Israeli withdrawal
Mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey presented Hamas with a staged disarmament proposal under US President Trump's Gaza plan, linking Hamas's disarmament to phased Israeli military withdrawal and humanitarian aid. Despite this, Hamas's acceptance remained uncertain, maintaining market pessimism.
Jun 5 2026
Hamas publicly rejects immediate disarmament, proposes police-only weapons in Gaza
June 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
Hamas stated it will not surrender its weapons immediately, resisting disarmament demands and indicating that the fate of its arsenal will be decided after comprehensive discussions with other Palestinian factions. This hardened stance contributed to market skepticism about disarmament by June 30, 2026.
Negotiations between Hamas and the Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov were postponed due to Hamas's reluctance to fully disarm, though Hamas showed openness to surrendering heavy weapons but insisted on retaining firearms. This delay and partial stance reinforced market doubts about imminent disarmament.
May 28 2026
Netanyahu orders Israeli army to seize 70% of Gaza, escalating tensions
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered expansion of military control over Gaza to 70%, violating the ceasefire and complicating disarmament talks. This military escalation increased doubts about Hamas disarming soon, negatively impacting market confidence.
May 15 2026
Board of Peace to ask UN Security Council to press Hamas to disarm
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%10%
The Board of Peace announced it would petition the UN Security Council to pressure Hamas to disarm. The move underscored the lack of a direct Hamas commitment and reinforced market expectations that the June deadline would not be met.
May 13 2026
Board of Peace envoy says Gaza ceasefire hinges on Hamas disarmament
June 30, 2026 drops to 7%13%
In mid-May, Nickolay Mladenov, Board of Peace envoy, stated that the ceasefire was paralyzed due to Hamas not disarming, calling disarmament "not negotiable". He suggested a political role for Hamas if it disarmed, but no formal disarmament announcement was made, sustaining market pessimism.
May 13 2026
Board of Peace prepares 15‑point plan to advance Hamas disarmament
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%2%
Bloomberg reported the Board of Peace was preparing a 15‑point plan to advance Hamas disarmament. The continued discussion without a public Hamas pledge reinforced the market’s view that a June deadline was improbable.
Apr 19 2026
Hamas officials say group ready to hand over some weapons
June 30, 2026 dips to 10%4%
Two senior Hamas officials said the group was prepared to hand over some automatic rifles, but stopped short of a full disarmament pledge. The partial concession failed to lift market optimism for a full disarmament by June, keeping prices low.
Apr 7 2026
Board of Peace gives Hamas week‑long ultimatum on disarmament
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%8%
The Board of Peace gave Hamas a final week‑long ultimatum to accept a phased disarmament plan. The deadline, coupled with Hamas’ refusal, implied the plan would not be implemented by early June, pushing the market further down.
Apr 6 2026
Board of Peace demands Hamas finalize disarmament agreement by week's end
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%9%
In early April, the Board of Peace demanded Hamas finalize a disarmament agreement by the end of the week, increasing pressure. Hamas spokesman rejected disarmament outright, signaling unwillingness to comply and causing market confidence to drop sharply.
Apr 5 2026
Hamas spokesperson rejects disarmament outright
June 30, 2026 drops to 26%7%
Hamas spokesperson Abu Obeida publicly rejected any disarmament, saying it would not be accepted under any circumstances. The outright refusal signaled that a formal disarmament announcement before the June‑30 deadline was unlikely, driving the market down sharply.
Mar 27 2026
Board of Peace presents eight‑month Hamas disarmament plan
June 30, 2026 plunges to 30%23%
Reuters reported that the Board of Peace presented Hamas with a detailed eight‑month disarmament plan. Hamas’s silence and study of the document were interpreted as a lack of immediate commitment, contributing to the early decline in market confidence.
Mar 24 2026
UN Security Council discusses Gaza disarmament plan
June 30, 2026 drops to 25%14%
On March 24, the UN Security Council discussed the disarmament plan for Gaza, emphasizing that reconstruction depends on Hamas decommissioning its weapons. This reinforced international pressure but Hamas had not committed to disarmament, maintaining market uncertainty.
Mar 19 2026
Trump's Board of Peace formally presents disarmament proposal to Hamas
June 30, 2026 jumps to 39%13%
In mid-March, the US-led Board of Peace formally presented Hamas with a written proposal outlining a phased disarmament plan, requiring Hamas to hand over weapons and share tunnel maps. Hamas began considering the proposal but had not accepted it, causing market fluctuations.
Feb 25 2026
Disputes over Hamas disarmament stall Gaza peace plan progress
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%18%
By late February, disagreements over how Hamas should disarm stalled progress on the Gaza peace plan, with Israel pushing for complete disarmament first and experts predicting Hamas would likely reject the plan. This increased skepticism about disarmament prospects.
Jan 29 2026
Senior Hamas official denies any agreement to disarm
On January 29, 2026, senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk publicly stated that Hamas had never agreed to disarm and that no direct discussions on disarmament had taken place, casting doubt on the likelihood of Hamas fulfilling disarmament demands. This statement likely contributed to initial market uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Recent Cairo talks have produced an effective rejection by Hamas of core disarmament elements in the U.S.-backed Gaza peace plan, stalling movement into phase two of the October 2025 ceasefire. Hamas conditions any discussion of weapons handover or demilitarization on full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, complete implementation of phase-one terms, and an end to reported violations. The Board of Peace, led by envoy Nickolay Mladenov, has presented phased proposals involving heavy-weapons surrender and tunnel mapping, yet mediators note persistent deadlock. Ongoing low-level incidents, including Israeli strikes, and international stabilization-force planning continue to shape negotiations without resolution on timelines or guarantees.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Recent Cairo talks have produced an effective rejection by Hamas of core disarmament elements in the U.S.-backed Gaza peace plan, stalling movement into phase two of the October 2025 ceasefire. Hamas conditions any discussion of weapons handover or demilitarization on full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, complete implementation of phase-one terms, and an end to reported violations. The Board of Peace, led by envoy Nickolay Mladenov, has presented phased proposals involving heavy-weapons surrender and tunnel mapping, yet mediators note persistent deadlock. Ongoing low-level incidents, including Israeli strikes, and international stabilization-force planning continue to shape negotiations without resolution on timelines or guarantees.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Jun 30 2026
Mediators Propose Phased Disarmament Plan to Revive Peace Process
In a bid to revive the stalled peace plan, mediators proposed a phased disarmament schedule, but intelligence assessments confirmed Hamas has no intention of actually disarming.
Jun 27 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vows continued military presence in Gaza and surrounding areas
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Netanyahu's statement that Israeli forces will remain in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria 'as long as required' signaled ongoing conflict and security concerns, reducing the likelihood of Hamas disarming by the June 30, 2026 deadline and depressing market prices.
Jun 26 2026
Hamas Launches Brutal Crackdown to Suppress June 26 Protests
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Hamas deployed armed guards, police, and militias to crush planned anti-Hamas protests across Gaza, where organizers had called on the group to disarm and cede power.
Jun 26 2026
Israel and Lebanon sign US-brokered peace agreement
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%4%
A peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon brokered by the US was signed, but Hezbollah's rejection and warnings of civil war indicated ongoing instability and resistance to disarmament, contributing to market skepticism about Hamas disarming by June 30, 2026.
Jun 25 2026
Gazans plan large anti-Hamas protest amid stagnation and disarmament deadlock
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Palestinians in Gaza organized a significant protest against Hamas's governance amid ongoing hardships and stalled peace efforts. The protest highlighted internal dissent but did not translate into Hamas disarming, reinforcing market skepticism about disarmament by June 30, 2026.
Jun 23 2026
Board of Peace Demands Complete Disarmament of Hamas
Ceasefire talks faced a severe test after the High Representative of the Board of Peace demanded that Gaza be completely free of any weapons, down to a single bullet.
Jun 15 2026
EU fails to agree on sanctions against Israeli official amid Gaza conflict
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
The European Union's failure to sanction Israeli official Ben Gvir despite pressure highlighted ongoing international divisions and lack of progress toward peace or disarmament in the region, negatively impacting market confidence in Hamas disarmament by June 30, 2026.
Jun 10 2026
Gaza Peace Talks Stall Over Hamas Disarmament Demands
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%4%
Negotiations to finalize a lasting peace in Gaza hit a critical impasse as Hamas resisted total surrender and proposed only a symbolic handover of weapons, which Israel categorically rejected.
Jun 9 2026
Mediators propose gradual Hamas disarmament linked to phased Israeli withdrawal
Mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey presented Hamas with a staged disarmament proposal under US President Trump's Gaza plan, linking Hamas's disarmament to phased Israeli military withdrawal and humanitarian aid. Despite this, Hamas's acceptance remained uncertain, maintaining market pessimism.
Jun 5 2026
Hamas publicly rejects immediate disarmament, proposes police-only weapons in Gaza
June 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
Hamas stated it will not surrender its weapons immediately, resisting disarmament demands and indicating that the fate of its arsenal will be decided after comprehensive discussions with other Palestinian factions. This hardened stance contributed to market skepticism about disarmament by June 30, 2026.
Negotiations between Hamas and the Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov were postponed due to Hamas's reluctance to fully disarm, though Hamas showed openness to surrendering heavy weapons but insisted on retaining firearms. This delay and partial stance reinforced market doubts about imminent disarmament.
May 28 2026
Netanyahu orders Israeli army to seize 70% of Gaza, escalating tensions
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered expansion of military control over Gaza to 70%, violating the ceasefire and complicating disarmament talks. This military escalation increased doubts about Hamas disarming soon, negatively impacting market confidence.
May 15 2026
Board of Peace to ask UN Security Council to press Hamas to disarm
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%10%
The Board of Peace announced it would petition the UN Security Council to pressure Hamas to disarm. The move underscored the lack of a direct Hamas commitment and reinforced market expectations that the June deadline would not be met.
May 13 2026
Board of Peace envoy says Gaza ceasefire hinges on Hamas disarmament
June 30, 2026 drops to 7%13%
In mid-May, Nickolay Mladenov, Board of Peace envoy, stated that the ceasefire was paralyzed due to Hamas not disarming, calling disarmament "not negotiable". He suggested a political role for Hamas if it disarmed, but no formal disarmament announcement was made, sustaining market pessimism.
May 13 2026
Board of Peace prepares 15‑point plan to advance Hamas disarmament
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%2%
Bloomberg reported the Board of Peace was preparing a 15‑point plan to advance Hamas disarmament. The continued discussion without a public Hamas pledge reinforced the market’s view that a June deadline was improbable.
Apr 19 2026
Hamas officials say group ready to hand over some weapons
June 30, 2026 dips to 10%4%
Two senior Hamas officials said the group was prepared to hand over some automatic rifles, but stopped short of a full disarmament pledge. The partial concession failed to lift market optimism for a full disarmament by June, keeping prices low.
Apr 7 2026
Board of Peace gives Hamas week‑long ultimatum on disarmament
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%8%
The Board of Peace gave Hamas a final week‑long ultimatum to accept a phased disarmament plan. The deadline, coupled with Hamas’ refusal, implied the plan would not be implemented by early June, pushing the market further down.
Apr 6 2026
Board of Peace demands Hamas finalize disarmament agreement by week's end
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%9%
In early April, the Board of Peace demanded Hamas finalize a disarmament agreement by the end of the week, increasing pressure. Hamas spokesman rejected disarmament outright, signaling unwillingness to comply and causing market confidence to drop sharply.
Apr 5 2026
Hamas spokesperson rejects disarmament outright
June 30, 2026 drops to 26%7%
Hamas spokesperson Abu Obeida publicly rejected any disarmament, saying it would not be accepted under any circumstances. The outright refusal signaled that a formal disarmament announcement before the June‑30 deadline was unlikely, driving the market down sharply.
Mar 27 2026
Board of Peace presents eight‑month Hamas disarmament plan
June 30, 2026 plunges to 30%23%
Reuters reported that the Board of Peace presented Hamas with a detailed eight‑month disarmament plan. Hamas’s silence and study of the document were interpreted as a lack of immediate commitment, contributing to the early decline in market confidence.
Mar 24 2026
UN Security Council discusses Gaza disarmament plan
June 30, 2026 drops to 25%14%
On March 24, the UN Security Council discussed the disarmament plan for Gaza, emphasizing that reconstruction depends on Hamas decommissioning its weapons. This reinforced international pressure but Hamas had not committed to disarmament, maintaining market uncertainty.
Mar 19 2026
Trump's Board of Peace formally presents disarmament proposal to Hamas
June 30, 2026 jumps to 39%13%
In mid-March, the US-led Board of Peace formally presented Hamas with a written proposal outlining a phased disarmament plan, requiring Hamas to hand over weapons and share tunnel maps. Hamas began considering the proposal but had not accepted it, causing market fluctuations.
Feb 25 2026
Disputes over Hamas disarmament stall Gaza peace plan progress
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%18%
By late February, disagreements over how Hamas should disarm stalled progress on the Gaza peace plan, with Israel pushing for complete disarmament first and experts predicting Hamas would likely reject the plan. This increased skepticism about disarmament prospects.
Jan 29 2026
Senior Hamas official denies any agreement to disarm
On January 29, 2026, senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk publicly stated that Hamas had never agreed to disarm and that no direct discussions on disarmament had taken place, casting doubt on the likelihood of Hamas fulfilling disarmament demands. This statement likely contributed to initial market uncertainty.
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«Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 6 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «December 31, 2026» с 35%, за ним следует «June 30, 2026» с 0%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 35¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 35%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.
На сегодняшний день «Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $2.1 million с момента запуска рынка Jul 30, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.
Чтобы торговать на «Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?», просмотри 6 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.
Текущий фаворит для «Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?» — «December 31, 2026» с 35%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 35%. Следующий ближайший исход — «June 30, 2026» с 0%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.
Правила разрешения «Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.
Да. Тебе не нужно торговать, чтобы оставаться в курсе. Эта страница служит трекером в реальном времени для «Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?». Вероятности исходов обновляются в реальном времени по мере поступления новых сделок. Ты можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки и читать раздел комментариев, чтобы узнать мнение других трейдеров. Ты также можешь использовать фильтры временного диапазона на графике, чтобы увидеть, как менялись коэффициенты со временем.
Коэффициенты Polymarket устанавливаются реальными трейдерами, вкладывающими реальные деньги в свои убеждения, что обычно приводит к точным прогнозам. С объёмом торгов $2.1 million по “Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?” эти цены агрегируют коллективные знания и убеждённость тысяч участников — часто превосходя опросы, экспертные прогнозы и традиционные исследования. Рынки прогнозов, такие как Polymarket, имеют сильный послужной список точности, особенно когда события приближаются к дате разрешения. Например, месячный показатель точности Polymarket составляет 94%. Для получения последних статистических данных о точности прогнозов Polymarket посети страницу точности на Polymarket.
Чтобы совершить первую сделку на «Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?», зарегистрируй бесплатный аккаунт на Polymarket и пополни его с помощью криптовалюты, кредитной или дебетовой карты или банковского перевода. После пополнения аккаунта вернись на эту страницу, выбери исход, на который хочешь торговать, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты новичок на рынках прогнозов, нажми на ссылку «Как это работает» вверху любой страницы Polymarket для пошагового руководства.
На Polymarket цена каждого исхода представляет подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Цена 35¢ для «December 31, 2026» на рынке «Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?» означает, что трейдеры коллективно оценивают вероятность того, что «December 31, 2026» будет правильным результатом, примерно в 35%. Если ты купишь акции «Да» по 35¢ и исход окажется правильным, ты получишь $1,00 за акцию — прибыль 65¢ за акцию. Если нет — эти акции будут стоить $0.
Рынок «Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?» запланирован к разрешению примерно Dec 31, 2026. Это означает, что торговля остаётся открытой, а коэффициенты продолжат меняться до этой даты. Точные сроки разрешения зависят от момента появления официального результата, как описано в разделе «Правила».
Рынок «Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?» имеет активное сообщество из 178 комментариев, где трейдеры делятся своим анализом, обсуждают исходы и последние события. Прокрути вниз до раздела комментариев, чтобы прочитать, что думают другие участники. Ты также можешь фильтровать по «Топ-держателям» или проверить вкладку «Активность» для ленты сделок в реальном времени.
Polymarket — крупнейший в мире рынок прогнозов, где ты можешь оставаться в курсе событий и зарабатывать на своих знаниях о реальных событиях. Трейдеры покупают и продают акции на исходы по темам от политики и выборов до криптовалют, финансов, спорта, технологий и культуры, включая рынки вроде «Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?». Цены отражают вероятности в реальном времени, подкреплённые финансовыми убеждениями, зачастую обеспечивая более быстрые и точные сигналы, чем опросы, эксперты или традиционные исследования.
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