Lebanon’s June 2026 framework agreement with Israel ties gradual Israeli withdrawal from southern zones to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment, yet implementation has stalled over sequencing disputes. Justice Minister Adel Nassar stated September 30 that weapons handover to the state is settled, though time is limited, while Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem rejected a four-month army timeline as serving Israeli interests. U.S. officials have pressed Beirut to accelerate efforts, warning of intensified Israeli operations absent faster progress, as pilot-zone seizures remain limited and negotiations await an October round. UNIFIL’s mandate ends December 2026, adding pressure, but Hezbollah’s weakened position has not produced an official commitment to relinquish its arsenal. These dynamics keep trader-implied probabilities low for near-term resolution.