**Traders assign a 76.9% probability that no new country will formally join the Abraham Accords before 2027, reflecting stalled progress on the most viable candidates amid persistent diplomatic and regional obstacles.** Saudi Arabia, the highest-profile potential addition, has repeatedly conditioned normalization on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a stance reaffirmed in May 2026 despite U.S. pressure tied to broader regional talks. Syria and Lebanon remain distant prospects due to ongoing security operations, internal instability, and Hezbollah-related constraints. Sudan’s earlier framework has not advanced to full ratification amid domestic conflict. Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 and Somaliland’s pledge represent recent expansions, but no comparable momentum has emerged for additional Arab or Muslim-majority states in 2026. With roughly four months remaining in the resolution window and no scheduled breakthroughs or shifts in core Palestinian-linked requirements, the current trader consensus aligns with the limited near-term diplomatic runway.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПрисоединится ли новая страна к Соглашениям Авраама до 2027 года?
Присоединится ли новая страна к Соглашениям Авраама до 2027 года?
Да
24% вероятность
$272,665 Объем
$272,665 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
24% вероятность
$272,665 Объем
$272,665 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 76.9% probability that no new country will formally join the Abraham Accords before 2027, reflecting stalled progress on the most viable candidates amid persistent diplomatic and regional obstacles.** Saudi Arabia, the highest-profile potential addition, has repeatedly conditioned normalization on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a stance reaffirmed in May 2026 despite U.S. pressure tied to broader regional talks. Syria and Lebanon remain distant prospects due to ongoing security operations, internal instability, and Hezbollah-related constraints. Sudan’s earlier framework has not advanced to full ratification amid domestic conflict.
Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 and Somaliland’s pledge represent recent expansions, but no comparable momentum has emerged for additional Arab or Muslim-majority states in 2026. With roughly four months remaining in the resolution window and no scheduled breakthroughs or shifts in core Palestinian-linked requirements, the current trader consensus aligns with the limited near-term diplomatic runway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET
Объем
$272,665Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 76.9% probability that no new country will formally join the Abraham Accords before 2027, reflecting stalled progress on the most viable candidates amid persistent diplomatic and regional obstacles.** Saudi Arabia, the highest-profile potential addition, has repeatedly conditioned normalization on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a stance reaffirmed in May 2026 despite U.S. pressure tied to broader regional talks. Syria and Lebanon remain distant prospects due to ongoing security operations, internal instability, and Hezbollah-related constraints. Sudan’s earlier framework has not advanced to full ratification amid domestic conflict.
Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 and Somaliland’s pledge represent recent expansions, but no comparable momentum has emerged for additional Arab or Muslim-majority states in 2026. With roughly four months remaining in the resolution window and no scheduled breakthroughs or shifts in core Palestinian-linked requirements, the current trader consensus aligns with the limited near-term diplomatic runway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$272,665Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 76.9% probability that no new country will formally join the Abraham Accords before 2027, reflecting stalled progress on the most viable candidates amid persistent diplomatic and regional obstacles.** Saudi Arabia, the highest-profile potential addition, has repeatedly conditioned normalization on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a stance reaffirmed in May 2026 despite U.S. pressure tied to broader regional talks. Syria and Lebanon remain distant prospects due to ongoing security operations, internal instability, and Hezbollah-related constraints. Sudan’s earlier framework has not advanced to full ratification amid domestic conflict. Kazakhstan’s accession in late 2025 and Somaliland’s pledge represent recent expansions, but no comparable momentum has emerged for additional Arab or Muslim-majority states in 2026. With roughly four months remaining in the resolution window and no scheduled breakthroughs or shifts in core Palestinian-linked requirements, the current trader consensus aligns with the limited near-term diplomatic runway.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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