Trump's administration has advanced a 20-point Gaza peace plan and Board of Peace framework since late 2025, securing a ceasefire, hostage releases, and initial disarmament steps, yet the territory remains a fragile reconstruction zone with persistent Israeli strikes, incomplete demilitarization, and an international stabilization force still forming. As president, Trump has conducted regional diplomacy through envoys, summits in Egypt and Israel, and meetings with Netanyahu without scheduling or signaling any direct Gaza trip amid security constraints and reconstruction delays. Trader consensus at 96.8% reflects these barriers and the absence of near-term catalysts before year-end. A rapid security breakthrough enabling safe access or a high-profile symbolic event could still shift odds.