U.S. policy toward Cuba in 2026 has centered on economic pressure through oil import restrictions, tariffs on third-country suppliers, and targeted sanctions rather than direct military intervention. The Trump administration has issued executive orders declaring a national emergency, deployed naval assets for surveillance, and issued public calls for regime change or a negotiated "friendly takeover," yet analysts note the absence of visible large-scale troop staging or logistical preparations required for a full invasion. Ongoing U.S. commitments in the Iran conflict further constrain resources, while experts assess that a ground operation would demand over 100,000 personnel and months of buildup. Traders price the "No" outcome at 90.5% because the current approach favors sanctions and diplomatic leverage over the high costs and risks of territorial invasion by year-end.