Amid escalating U.S.-Cuba tensions driven by Cuba's deepening military and energy ties with Russia—including oil shipments defying U.S. sanctions and alleged Cuban fighters in Ukraine—President Trump's recent threats labeling Cuba "next" after Iran, coupled with surged spy flights and Pentagon contingency planning reported in April 2026, have pushed Yes odds to 23.5%. However, trader consensus favors No at 76.5%, reflecting official statements denying imminent military action, April U.S. diplomatic visits to Havana proposing reforms, and a White House focus on expanded sanctions and energy blockades over invasion. Historical aversion to direct intervention, logistical hurdles, and competing priorities like Ukraine and China reinforce low invasion probability absent major provocation before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$1,950,780 Объем
$1,950,780 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$1,950,780 Объем
$1,950,780 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Amid escalating U.S.-Cuba tensions driven by Cuba's deepening military and energy ties with Russia—including oil shipments defying U.S. sanctions and alleged Cuban fighters in Ukraine—President Trump's recent threats labeling Cuba "next" after Iran, coupled with surged spy flights and Pentagon contingency planning reported in April 2026, have pushed Yes odds to 23.5%. However, trader consensus favors No at 76.5%, reflecting official statements denying imminent military action, April U.S. diplomatic visits to Havana proposing reforms, and a White House focus on expanded sanctions and energy blockades over invasion. Historical aversion to direct intervention, logistical hurdles, and competing priorities like Ukraine and China reinforce low invasion probability absent major provocation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Открытие рынка: Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Объем
$1,950,780Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Amid escalating U.S.-Cuba tensions driven by Cuba's deepening military and energy ties with Russia—including oil shipments defying U.S. sanctions and alleged Cuban fighters in Ukraine—President Trump's recent threats labeling Cuba "next" after Iran, coupled with surged spy flights and Pentagon contingency planning reported in April 2026, have pushed Yes odds to 23.5%. However, trader consensus favors No at 76.5%, reflecting official statements denying imminent military action, April U.S. diplomatic visits to Havana proposing reforms, and a White House focus on expanded sanctions and energy blockades over invasion. Historical aversion to direct intervention, logistical hurdles, and competing priorities like Ukraine and China reinforce low invasion probability absent major provocation before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Объем
$1,950,780Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating U.S.-Cuba tensions driven by Cuba's deepening military and energy ties with Russia—including oil shipments defying U.S. sanctions and alleged Cuban fighters in Ukraine—President Trump's recent threats labeling Cuba "next" after Iran, coupled with surged spy flights and Pentagon contingency planning reported in April 2026, have pushed Yes odds to 23.5%. However, trader consensus favors No at 76.5%, reflecting official statements denying imminent military action, April U.S. diplomatic visits to Havana proposing reforms, and a White House focus on expanded sanctions and energy blockades over invasion. Historical aversion to direct intervention, logistical hurdles, and competing priorities like Ukraine and China reinforce low invasion probability absent major provocation before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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