U.S.-Colombia relations, strained in early 2026 after the American intervention in Venezuela and sharp rhetoric from President Trump linking Colombian drug flows to potential military action, have since stabilized through direct diplomacy and Colombia’s August 2026 presidential transition. The new de la Espriella administration has prioritized security cooperation, prompting U.S. commitments of $1 billion in assistance and Colombia’s alignment with regional initiatives such as the Shield of the Americas. Traders assign overwhelming probability to no invasion because bilateral ties now emphasize joint counternarcotics efforts, economic partnership, and institutional continuity rather than confrontation, consistent with long-standing patterns of U.S. engagement with Colombia as a key regional partner. Late developments such as renewed migration disputes, leadership changes in either capital, or major shifts in narcotics enforcement could still introduce volatility before year-end.