Traders price the under-5 bucket highest because Iran's current Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has maintained limited direct social media output since assuming the role earlier in 2026, favoring formal statements issued through state channels or read on media rather than frequent X posts. Recent developments, including his August 9 appointment of a new Supreme National Security Council secretary, reflect steady institutional activity without evidence of an imminent escalation or major announcement cycle that would trigger daily messaging. Historical patterns under both the prior and current leadership show sporadic public engagement, especially outside acute crises, supporting the market's assessment that a quiet week in mid-to-late August is the most probable outcome.