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Политика·Флорида

Республиканская первичная маржа победы FL-07

icon for Республиканская первичная маржа победы FL-07
Политика·Флорида

Республиканская первичная маржа победы FL-07

Миллс <5% 38%

Илайджа 25%+ 37%

Элиджа 15–20% 37%

Элайджа 5–10% 36%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Миллс <5% 38%

Илайджа 25%+ 37%

Элиджа 15–20% 37%

Элайджа 5–10% 36%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ
icon for Миллс 25%+

Миллс 25%+

$49 Объем

26%

icon for Миллс 20–25%

Миллс 20–25%

$0 Объем

36%

icon for Миллс 15–20%

Миллс 15–20%

$0 Объем

34%

icon for Миллс 10–15%

Миллс 10–15%

$0 Объем

36%

icon for Миллс 5–10%

Миллс 5–10%

$0 Объем

36%

icon for Миллс <5%

Миллс <5%

$0 Объем

38%

icon for Элайджа <5%

Элайджа <5%

$0 Объем

25%

icon for Элайджа 5–10%

Элайджа 5–10%

$0 Объем

36%

icon for Элайджа 10–15%

Элайджа 10–15%

$0 Объем

35%

icon for Элиджа 15–20%

Элиджа 15–20%

$0 Объем

37%

icon for Элиджа 20–25%

Элиджа 20–25%

$0 Объем

36%

icon for Илайджа 25%+

Илайджа 25%+

$57 Объем

37%

Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07). For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The August 18 Republican primary in Florida’s 7th district pits incumbent Cory Mills against Ryan Elijah as the leading challengers, with Michael Johnson and Sarah Ulrich also on the ballot. A St. Pete Polls survey from early August showed Mills at roughly 29% support and Elijah at 14% among likely voters, leaving many undecided. Trump has endorsed Mills while DeSantis has stated opposition, and several Florida Republicans have backed Elijah. This combination of divided elite signals, low name recognition for challengers, and limited polling data has produced high uncertainty over the final margin, positioning “Other” as the clearest market leader at 50% while compressing probabilities for the listed Mills and Elijah victory brackets into the mid-30s to low-40s range.

Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Объем
$106
Дата окончания
18 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07). For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07). For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The August 18 Republican primary in Florida’s 7th district pits incumbent Cory Mills against Ryan Elijah as the leading challengers, with Michael Johnson and Sarah Ulrich also on the ballot. A St. Pete Polls survey from early August showed Mills at roughly 29% support and Elijah at 14% among likely voters, leaving many undecided. Trump has endorsed Mills while DeSantis has stated opposition, and several Florida Republicans have backed Elijah. This combination of divided elite signals, low name recognition for challengers, and limited polling data has produced high uncertainty over the final margin, positioning “Other” as the clearest market leader at 50% while compressing probabilities for the listed Mills and Elijah victory brackets into the mid-30s to low-40s range.

Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07).

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Объем
$106
Дата окончания
18 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Republican Primary for Florida's 7th Congressional District (FL-07). For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Связанные

icon for Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?

Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?

47%
icon for Выиграет ли Джаред Московиц праймериз Демократической партии во Флориде-25 с отрывом не менее 25%?

Выиграет ли Джаред Московиц праймериз Демократической партии во Флориде-25 с отрывом не менее 25%?

48%
Да
icon for Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-07 House election by 18% or more?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-07 House election by 18% or more?

37%

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Республиканская первичная маржа победы FL-07» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 12 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Миллс <5%» с 38%, за ним следует «Элайджа 5–10%» с 37%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 38¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 38%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Республиканская первичная маржа победы FL-07» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Aug 14, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Республиканская первичная маржа победы FL-07», просмотри 12 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Республиканская первичная маржа победы FL-07» — «Миллс <5%» с 38%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 38%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Элайджа 5–10%» с 37%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Республиканская первичная маржа победы FL-07» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.