Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, the current House Speaker, faces a fragmented field in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district jungle primary scheduled for November 3, 2026. Multiple Democratic challengers and weaker Republican opponents have qualified, but Johnson’s prior 85.8% performance in the district and strong fundraising position him to exceed the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff. The November date followed postponement of earlier primaries after a Supreme Court ruling on district maps, leaving limited time for opposition consolidation. Trader consensus reflected in the 90% probability for an outright winner aligns with the district’s partisan composition and historical results for well-established incumbents facing divided opposition.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель первого тура выборов в Палату представителей LA-04?
Победитель первого тура выборов в Палату представителей LA-04?
Да
89% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Да
89% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, the current House Speaker, faces a fragmented field in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district jungle primary scheduled for November 3, 2026. Multiple Democratic challengers and weaker Republican opponents have qualified, but Johnson’s prior 85.8% performance in the district and strong fundraising position him to exceed the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff. The November date followed postponement of earlier primaries after a Supreme Court ruling on district maps, leaving limited time for opposition consolidation. Trader consensus reflected in the 90% probability for an outright winner aligns with the district’s partisan composition and historical results for well-established incumbents facing divided opposition.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.
Открытие рынка: Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Объем
$558Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, the current House Speaker, faces a fragmented field in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district jungle primary scheduled for November 3, 2026. Multiple Democratic challengers and weaker Republican opponents have qualified, but Johnson’s prior 85.8% performance in the district and strong fundraising position him to exceed the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff. The November date followed postponement of earlier primaries after a Supreme Court ruling on district maps, leaving limited time for opposition consolidation. Trader consensus reflected in the 90% probability for an outright winner aligns with the district’s partisan composition and historical results for well-established incumbents facing divided opposition.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-04 House election.
Объем
$558Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, the current House Speaker, faces a fragmented field in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district jungle primary scheduled for November 3, 2026. Multiple Democratic challengers and weaker Republican opponents have qualified, but Johnson’s prior 85.8% performance in the district and strong fundraising position him to exceed the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff. The November date followed postponement of earlier primaries after a Supreme Court ruling on district maps, leaving limited time for opposition consolidation. Trader consensus reflected in the 90% probability for an outright winner aligns with the district’s partisan composition and historical results for well-established incumbents facing divided opposition.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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