**Incumbent Steve Scalise faces limited opposition in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, jungle primary.** The district’s consistent Republican lean (rated R+18 to R+20) and Scalise’s long tenure as House Majority Leader support strong expectations that he will exceed 50 percent of the vote and secure an outright win without a December runoff. The field includes Scalise, a minor Republican challenger (Randall Arrington), Democrat Lauren Jewett, and an independent. Scalise’s 2024 performance (66.8 percent) and the absence of competitive fundraising or polling from opponents reinforce the view that vote splitting among non-Republican candidates will remain limited. Recent court-driven map adjustments and the shift to a single November primary ballot have not altered the underlying partisan balance enough to change this dynamic. Trader consensus at 91.5 percent for an outright first-round victory reflects these structural factors: safe-seat incumbency, low-profile challengers, and historical results in comparable Louisiana House races. No major late developments have emerged to suggest a closer contest or elevated risk of a runoff.