Washington’s 4th congressional district, encompassing Yakima and the Tri-Cities in central Washington, maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent presidential and House contests. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary consolidated Republican support behind Trump-endorsed Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who advanced comfortably ahead of Democrat John Duresky. Multiple GOP candidates split the remaining vote, leaving the general-election matchup between McKinney and Duresky on November 3. Independent race ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, and forecasting models project a substantial GOP advantage rooted in voter registration patterns, turnout history, and the district’s consistent partisan lean. Trader consensus at roughly 90 percent for Republicans reflects these structural factors, though a national Democratic wave, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Democratic mobilization could narrow the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
WA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$50,926 Объем
$50,926 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
91%
Демократическая партия
8%
$50,926 Объем
$50,926 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$28,069 Объем
91%
Демократическая партия
$22,858 Объем
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district, encompassing Yakima and the Tri-Cities in central Washington, maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent presidential and House contests. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary consolidated Republican support behind Trump-endorsed Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who advanced comfortably ahead of Democrat John Duresky. Multiple GOP candidates split the remaining vote, leaving the general-election matchup between McKinney and Duresky on November 3. Independent race ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, and forecasting models project a substantial GOP advantage rooted in voter registration patterns, turnout history, and the district’s consistent partisan lean. Trader consensus at roughly 90 percent for Republicans reflects these structural factors, though a national Democratic wave, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Democratic mobilization could narrow the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$50,926Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district, encompassing Yakima and the Tri-Cities in central Washington, maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent presidential and House contests. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary consolidated Republican support behind Trump-endorsed Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who advanced comfortably ahead of Democrat John Duresky. Multiple GOP candidates split the remaining vote, leaving the general-election matchup between McKinney and Duresky on November 3. Independent race ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, and forecasting models project a substantial GOP advantage rooted in voter registration patterns, turnout history, and the district’s consistent partisan lean. Trader consensus at roughly 90 percent for Republicans reflects these structural factors, though a national Democratic wave, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Democratic mobilization could narrow the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$50,926Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Washington’s 4th congressional district, encompassing Yakima and the Tri-Cities in central Washington, maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent presidential and House contests. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary consolidated Republican support behind Trump-endorsed Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who advanced comfortably ahead of Democrat John Duresky. Multiple GOP candidates split the remaining vote, leaving the general-election matchup between McKinney and Duresky on November 3. Independent race ratings classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, and forecasting models project a substantial GOP advantage rooted in voter registration patterns, turnout history, and the district’s consistent partisan lean. Trader consensus at roughly 90 percent for Republicans reflects these structural factors, though a national Democratic wave, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Democratic mobilization could narrow the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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