This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra leads Polymarket trader consensus at 52.1% implied probability to win California's 2026 gubernatorial race, reflecting his surge in late-April and early-May polls following Rep. Eric Swalwell's withdrawal, where he now tops likely voter surveys at 18% amid a fragmented top-two primary field set for June 2. Billionaire Tom Steyer holds second at 31.6% on heavy self-funding and endorsements like Sierra Club's May 6 backing, though Becerra's statewide name recognition from prior Attorney General service edges him ahead among Democrats. Republican Steve Hilton trails at 8.8% after leading some April polls, but California's Democratic lean favors a Becerra-Steyer matchup advancing, with mail ballots now circulating ahead of the primary.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra leads Polymarket trader consensus at 52.1% implied probability to win California's 2026 gubernatorial race, reflecting his surge in late-April and early-May polls following Rep. Eric Swalwell's withdrawal, where he now tops likely voter surveys at 18% amid a fragmented top-two primary field set for June 2. Billionaire Tom Steyer holds second at 31.6% on heavy self-funding and endorsements like Sierra Club's May 6 backing, though Becerra's statewide name recognition from prior Attorney General service edges him ahead among Democrats. Republican Steve Hilton trails at 8.8% after leading some April polls, but California's Democratic lean favors a Becerra-Steyer matchup advancing, with mail ballots now circulating ahead of the primary.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
May 12 2026
Xavier Becerra surges in California governor race polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%21%
Xavier Becerra's campaign gained momentum in early May, reflected by a sharp increase in market price from 31% to 52%, indicating growing support ahead of the primary.
May 1 2026
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%21%
Xavier Becerra's market price surged significantly in early May, reflecting increased support or positive developments in his campaign, possibly due to endorsements or campaign events.
Apr 23 2026
Democrats fear vote splitting in California governor race could allow two Republicans to advance
With many Democratic candidates running, party insiders expressed concern that the split vote could enable two Republicans to advance to the general election, affecting market prices for both Democratic and Republican candidates.
Apr 23 2026
Xavier Becerra’s campaign gains momentum after policy rollout
Xavier Becerra surges to 31%31%
Becerra announced a new health‑care initiative that resonated with voters, lifting his market price from single digits to the low‑30s.
Apr 15 2026
Tom Steyer spends $115 million on TV ads in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 67%55%
Steyer’s unprecedented ad buy dramatically increased his visibility, pushing his market price from the low teens to a peak of 67% within days.
Apr 15 2026
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends heavily in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 70%52%
Tom Steyer launched a massive advertising campaign spending over $115 million, dominating media presence. Despite heavy spending, his polling gains were limited, causing market volatility.
Apr 14 2026
Steve Hilton endorsed by President Donald Trump for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 12%6%
Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator and Republican candidate, received a high-profile endorsement from Donald Trump, boosting his profile and market price despite the crowded field.
Mar 10 2026
Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra dips to 1%3%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a leading Democrat, causing a sharp drop in his own odds and a redistribution of support to remaining candidates, notably Tom Steyer.
Feb 20 2026
President Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 9%5%
Trump’s endorsement gave Hilton a credibility boost among Republican voters, lifting his market price modestly.
Jan 23 2026
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race as moderate Democrat
Matt Mahan plunges to 16%30%
Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat with a record on homelessness and crime, attracting support from Silicon Valley and business leaders, which influenced his market price.
Dec 1 2025
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan plunges to 16%30%
Mahan’s entry added a moderate Democrat to the field, drawing attention from centrist voters and slightly boosting his market price.
Dec 1 2025
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches massive ad spending spree in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 38%20%
Tom Steyer began a large-scale advertising campaign using his personal fortune to dominate media presence in the governor's race, significantly increasing his visibility and market support despite no clear frontrunner emerging.
Nov 17 2025
Rep. Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
Tom Steyer plunges to 20%29%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed rapidly after multiple sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading to his suspension of the campaign and eventual resignation from Congress. This event caused a significant reshuffling in the race, with his supporters and donors reconsidering their options, impacting the market prices for other candidates.
Oct 15 2025
Rep. Eric Swalwell launches campaign for California governor
Xavier Becerra plunges to 5%45%
Swalwell announced his candidacy on a national talk show, positioning himself as a fighter against rising costs, which gave his name an early market presence.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra leads Polymarket trader consensus at 52.1% implied probability to win California's 2026 gubernatorial race, reflecting his surge in late-April and early-May polls following Rep. Eric Swalwell's withdrawal, where he now tops likely voter surveys at 18% amid a fragmented top-two primary field set for June 2. Billionaire Tom Steyer holds second at 31.6% on heavy self-funding and endorsements like Sierra Club's May 6 backing, though Becerra's statewide name recognition from prior Attorney General service edges him ahead among Democrats. Republican Steve Hilton trails at 8.8% after leading some April polls, but California's Democratic lean favors a Becerra-Steyer matchup advancing, with mail ballots now circulating ahead of the primary.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra leads Polymarket trader consensus at 52.1% implied probability to win California's 2026 gubernatorial race, reflecting his surge in late-April and early-May polls following Rep. Eric Swalwell's withdrawal, where he now tops likely voter surveys at 18% amid a fragmented top-two primary field set for June 2. Billionaire Tom Steyer holds second at 31.6% on heavy self-funding and endorsements like Sierra Club's May 6 backing, though Becerra's statewide name recognition from prior Attorney General service edges him ahead among Democrats. Republican Steve Hilton trails at 8.8% after leading some April polls, but California's Democratic lean favors a Becerra-Steyer matchup advancing, with mail ballots now circulating ahead of the primary.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
May 12 2026
Xavier Becerra surges in California governor race polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%21%
Xavier Becerra's campaign gained momentum in early May, reflected by a sharp increase in market price from 31% to 52%, indicating growing support ahead of the primary.
May 1 2026
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%21%
Xavier Becerra's market price surged significantly in early May, reflecting increased support or positive developments in his campaign, possibly due to endorsements or campaign events.
Apr 23 2026
Democrats fear vote splitting in California governor race could allow two Republicans to advance
With many Democratic candidates running, party insiders expressed concern that the split vote could enable two Republicans to advance to the general election, affecting market prices for both Democratic and Republican candidates.
Apr 23 2026
Xavier Becerra’s campaign gains momentum after policy rollout
Xavier Becerra surges to 31%31%
Becerra announced a new health‑care initiative that resonated with voters, lifting his market price from single digits to the low‑30s.
Apr 15 2026
Tom Steyer spends $115 million on TV ads in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 67%55%
Steyer’s unprecedented ad buy dramatically increased his visibility, pushing his market price from the low teens to a peak of 67% within days.
Apr 15 2026
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends heavily in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 70%52%
Tom Steyer launched a massive advertising campaign spending over $115 million, dominating media presence. Despite heavy spending, his polling gains were limited, causing market volatility.
Apr 14 2026
Steve Hilton endorsed by President Donald Trump for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 12%6%
Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator and Republican candidate, received a high-profile endorsement from Donald Trump, boosting his profile and market price despite the crowded field.
Mar 10 2026
Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra dips to 1%3%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a leading Democrat, causing a sharp drop in his own odds and a redistribution of support to remaining candidates, notably Tom Steyer.
Feb 20 2026
President Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 9%5%
Trump’s endorsement gave Hilton a credibility boost among Republican voters, lifting his market price modestly.
Jan 23 2026
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race as moderate Democrat
Matt Mahan plunges to 16%30%
Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat with a record on homelessness and crime, attracting support from Silicon Valley and business leaders, which influenced his market price.
Dec 1 2025
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan plunges to 16%30%
Mahan’s entry added a moderate Democrat to the field, drawing attention from centrist voters and slightly boosting his market price.
Dec 1 2025
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches massive ad spending spree in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 38%20%
Tom Steyer began a large-scale advertising campaign using his personal fortune to dominate media presence in the governor's race, significantly increasing his visibility and market support despite no clear frontrunner emerging.
Nov 17 2025
Rep. Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
Tom Steyer plunges to 20%29%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed rapidly after multiple sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading to his suspension of the campaign and eventual resignation from Congress. This event caused a significant reshuffling in the race, with his supporters and donors reconsidering their options, impacting the market prices for other candidates.
Oct 15 2025
Rep. Eric Swalwell launches campaign for California governor
Xavier Becerra plunges to 5%45%
Swalwell announced his candidacy on a national talk show, positioning himself as a fighter against rising costs, which gave his name an early market presence.
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Часто задаваемые вопросы
«Победитель выборов губернатора Калифорнии» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 23 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Ксавье Бесерра» с 52%, за ним следует «Том Стейер» с 32%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 52¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 52%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.
На сегодняшний день «Победитель выборов губернатора Калифорнии» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $21.5 million с момента запуска рынка Oct 9, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.
Чтобы торговать на «Победитель выборов губернатора Калифорнии», просмотри 23 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.
Текущий фаворит для «Победитель выборов губернатора Калифорнии» — «Ксавье Бесерра» с 52%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 52%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Том Стейер» с 32%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.
Правила разрешения «Победитель выборов губернатора Калифорнии» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.
Да. Тебе не нужно торговать, чтобы оставаться в курсе. Эта страница служит трекером в реальном времени для «Победитель выборов губернатора Калифорнии». Вероятности исходов обновляются в реальном времени по мере поступления новых сделок. Ты можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки и читать раздел комментариев, чтобы узнать мнение других трейдеров. Ты также можешь использовать фильтры временного диапазона на графике, чтобы увидеть, как менялись коэффициенты со временем.
Коэффициенты Polymarket устанавливаются реальными трейдерами, вкладывающими реальные деньги в свои убеждения, что обычно приводит к точным прогнозам. С объёмом торгов $21.5 million по “Победитель выборов губернатора Калифорнии” эти цены агрегируют коллективные знания и убеждённость тысяч участников — часто превосходя опросы, экспертные прогнозы и традиционные исследования. Рынки прогнозов, такие как Polymarket, имеют сильный послужной список точности, особенно когда события приближаются к дате разрешения. Например, месячный показатель точности Polymarket составляет 94%. Для получения последних статистических данных о точности прогнозов Polymarket посети страницу точности на Polymarket.
Чтобы совершить первую сделку на «Победитель выборов губернатора Калифорнии», зарегистрируй бесплатный аккаунт на Polymarket и пополни его с помощью криптовалюты, кредитной или дебетовой карты или банковского перевода. После пополнения аккаунта вернись на эту страницу, выбери исход, на который хочешь торговать, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты новичок на рынках прогнозов, нажми на ссылку «Как это работает» вверху любой страницы Polymarket для пошагового руководства.
На Polymarket цена каждого исхода представляет подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Цена 52¢ для «Ксавье Бесерра» на рынке «Победитель выборов губернатора Калифорнии» означает, что трейдеры коллективно оценивают вероятность того, что «Ксавье Бесерра» будет правильным результатом, примерно в 52%. Если ты купишь акции «Да» по 52¢ и исход окажется правильным, ты получишь $1,00 за акцию — прибыль 48¢ за акцию. Если нет — эти акции будут стоить $0.
Рынок «Победитель выборов губернатора Калифорнии» запланирован к разрешению примерно Nov 3, 2026. Это означает, что торговля остаётся открытой, а коэффициенты продолжат меняться до этой даты. Точные сроки разрешения зависят от момента появления официального результата, как описано в разделе «Правила».
Рынок «Победитель выборов губернатора Калифорнии» имеет активное сообщество из 60 комментариев, где трейдеры делятся своим анализом, обсуждают исходы и последние события. Прокрути вниз до раздела комментариев, чтобы прочитать, что думают другие участники. Ты также можешь фильтровать по «Топ-держателям» или проверить вкладку «Активность» для ленты сделок в реальном времени.
Polymarket — крупнейший в мире рынок прогнозов, где ты можешь оставаться в курсе событий и зарабатывать на своих знаниях о реальных событиях. Трейдеры покупают и продают акции на исходы по темам от политики и выборов до криптовалют, финансов, спорта, технологий и культуры, включая рынки вроде «Победитель выборов губернатора Калифорнии». Цены отражают вероятности в реальном времени, подкреплённые финансовыми убеждениями, зачастую обеспечивая более быстрые и точные сигналы, чем опросы, эксперты или традиционные исследования.
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Часто задаваемые вопросы