The high implied probability that Trump remains in office through early 2027 reflects the absence of active congressional impeachment proceedings, Senate removal votes, or confirmed health events that would trigger the 25th Amendment. As incumbent in his second term with Republican majorities in both chambers, structural barriers to removal remain elevated, consistent with historical base rates where presidents rarely exit midterm absent scandal or incapacity. Recent legislative and executive actions have shown continued agenda advancement without triggering bipartisan opposition sufficient to shift removal odds. Traders price in these institutional and partisan dynamics, with any late-breaking developments like cabinet turnover or legal rulings unlikely to reach the required thresholds before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
6% вероятность
$10,744,109 Объем
$10,744,109 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
6% вероятность
$10,744,109 Объем
$10,744,109 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high implied probability that Trump remains in office through early 2027 reflects the absence of active congressional impeachment proceedings, Senate removal votes, or confirmed health events that would trigger the 25th Amendment. As incumbent in his second term with Republican majorities in both chambers, structural barriers to removal remain elevated, consistent with historical base rates where presidents rarely exit midterm absent scandal or incapacity. Recent legislative and executive actions have shown continued agenda advancement without triggering bipartisan opposition sufficient to shift removal odds. Traders price in these institutional and partisan dynamics, with any late-breaking developments like cabinet turnover or legal rulings unlikely to reach the required thresholds before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Объем
$10,744,109Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high implied probability that Trump remains in office through early 2027 reflects the absence of active congressional impeachment proceedings, Senate removal votes, or confirmed health events that would trigger the 25th Amendment. As incumbent in his second term with Republican majorities in both chambers, structural barriers to removal remain elevated, consistent with historical base rates where presidents rarely exit midterm absent scandal or incapacity. Recent legislative and executive actions have shown continued agenda advancement without triggering bipartisan opposition sufficient to shift removal odds. Traders price in these institutional and partisan dynamics, with any late-breaking developments like cabinet turnover or legal rulings unlikely to reach the required thresholds before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$10,744,109Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high implied probability that Trump remains in office through early 2027 reflects the absence of active congressional impeachment proceedings, Senate removal votes, or confirmed health events that would trigger the 25th Amendment. As incumbent in his second term with Republican majorities in both chambers, structural barriers to removal remain elevated, consistent with historical base rates where presidents rarely exit midterm absent scandal or incapacity. Recent legislative and executive actions have shown continued agenda advancement without triggering bipartisan opposition sufficient to shift removal odds. Traders price in these institutional and partisan dynamics, with any late-breaking developments like cabinet turnover or legal rulings unlikely to reach the required thresholds before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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