Trump entered his second term in January 2025 after securing the 2024 election. Through mid-2026, no congressional majorities have pursued impeachment, no serious health announcements have surfaced, and legal proceedings against him remain resolved or dormant. Republican control of both chambers of Congress has blocked any realistic path to removal via the Senate, while polling shows consistent backing from core supporters. Historical patterns indicate that sitting presidents almost never depart office early without extraordinary events, and no such catalysts have materialized in the first sixteen months. Traders therefore assign a 90.5 percent probability that Trump completes his term through the end of 2026, with only low-probability scenarios such as sudden medical incapacity or an unforeseen scandal able to alter the current consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$8,518,540 Объем
$8,518,540 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$8,518,540 Объем
$8,518,540 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump entered his second term in January 2025 after securing the 2024 election. Through mid-2026, no congressional majorities have pursued impeachment, no serious health announcements have surfaced, and legal proceedings against him remain resolved or dormant. Republican control of both chambers of Congress has blocked any realistic path to removal via the Senate, while polling shows consistent backing from core supporters. Historical patterns indicate that sitting presidents almost never depart office early without extraordinary events, and no such catalysts have materialized in the first sixteen months. Traders therefore assign a 90.5 percent probability that Trump completes his term through the end of 2026, with only low-probability scenarios such as sudden medical incapacity or an unforeseen scandal able to alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Объем
$8,518,540Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump entered his second term in January 2025 after securing the 2024 election. Through mid-2026, no congressional majorities have pursued impeachment, no serious health announcements have surfaced, and legal proceedings against him remain resolved or dormant. Republican control of both chambers of Congress has blocked any realistic path to removal via the Senate, while polling shows consistent backing from core supporters. Historical patterns indicate that sitting presidents almost never depart office early without extraordinary events, and no such catalysts have materialized in the first sixteen months. Traders therefore assign a 90.5 percent probability that Trump completes his term through the end of 2026, with only low-probability scenarios such as sudden medical incapacity or an unforeseen scandal able to alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$8,518,570Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump entered his second term in January 2025 after securing the 2024 election. Through mid-2026, no congressional majorities have pursued impeachment, no serious health announcements have surfaced, and legal proceedings against him remain resolved or dormant. Republican control of both chambers of Congress has blocked any realistic path to removal via the Senate, while polling shows consistent backing from core supporters. Historical patterns indicate that sitting presidents almost never depart office early without extraordinary events, and no such catalysts have materialized in the first sixteen months. Traders therefore assign a 90.5 percent probability that Trump completes his term through the end of 2026, with only low-probability scenarios such as sudden medical incapacity or an unforeseen scandal able to alter the current consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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