U.S. military strikes on Venezuelan targets and the January 2026 capture of President Nicolás Maduro under Operation Absolute Resolve remain the dominant driver of trader assessments for any full-scale invasion market. The operation, justified by U.S. officials as targeting narcotics networks and prompting Maduro’s extradition to face charges, stopped short of sustained ground occupation or territorial control. Subsequent months have seen diplomatic normalization, including restored ties in March, eased sanctions on interim leadership, and resumed commercial flights by late April, with no new troop deployments or escalatory signals reported through mid-May. Regional responses and domestic polling show limited appetite for broader intervention, while scheduled G7 talks on Latin American stability offer no immediate catalyst for reversal.