The January 2026 U.S. special operations raid and targeted airstrikes in Caracas (Operation Absolute Resolve) removed Nicolás Maduro without a sustained ground offensive or territorial occupation, shifting momentum toward diplomatic engagement. Subsequent steps—including reestablishment of bilateral ties in March, sanctions relief on oil exports, limited U.S. support after June earthquakes, and U.S.-backed national dialogue talks—have reinforced a stabilization track under interim authorities. These developments, alongside the absence of new congressional authorizations or major escalatory triggers through mid-August 2026, underpin trader consensus that the probability of a qualifying military offensive to establish control remains low through year-end resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудут ли США вторгаться в Венесуэлу...?
Будут ли США вторгаться в Венесуэлу...?
$14,192,785 Объем
31 мар. 2026 г.
31 декабря
5%
$14,192,785 Объем
31 декабря
$236,777 Объем
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The January 2026 U.S. special operations raid and targeted airstrikes in Caracas (Operation Absolute Resolve) removed Nicolás Maduro without a sustained ground offensive or territorial occupation, shifting momentum toward diplomatic engagement. Subsequent steps—including reestablishment of bilateral ties in March, sanctions relief on oil exports, limited U.S. support after June earthquakes, and U.S.-backed national dialogue talks—have reinforced a stabilization track under interim authorities. These developments, alongside the absence of new congressional authorizations or major escalatory triggers through mid-August 2026, underpin trader consensus that the probability of a qualifying military offensive to establish control remains low through year-end resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Открытие рынка: Jan 4, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Объем
$14,192,785Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The January 2026 U.S. special operations raid and targeted airstrikes in Caracas (Operation Absolute Resolve) removed Nicolás Maduro without a sustained ground offensive or territorial occupation, shifting momentum toward diplomatic engagement. Subsequent steps—including reestablishment of bilateral ties in March, sanctions relief on oil exports, limited U.S. support after June earthquakes, and U.S.-backed national dialogue talks—have reinforced a stabilization track under interim authorities. These developments, alongside the absence of new congressional authorizations or major escalatory triggers through mid-August 2026, underpin trader consensus that the probability of a qualifying military offensive to establish control remains low through year-end resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Объем
$14,192,785Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The January 2026 U.S. special operations raid and targeted airstrikes in Caracas (Operation Absolute Resolve) removed Nicolás Maduro without a sustained ground offensive or territorial occupation, shifting momentum toward diplomatic engagement. Subsequent steps—including reestablishment of bilateral ties in March, sanctions relief on oil exports, limited U.S. support after June earthquakes, and U.S.-backed national dialogue talks—have reinforced a stabilization track under interim authorities. These developments, alongside the absence of new congressional authorizations or major escalatory triggers through mid-August 2026, underpin trader consensus that the probability of a qualifying military offensive to establish control remains low through year-end resolution windows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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