The trader consensus against Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, stems from his public commitments to serve through the full term ending in 2029, combined with no recent health disclosures, legal developments, or institutional pressures indicating otherwise. Historical precedent shows presidential resignations remain rare, and current polling trends plus administration priorities reflect continuity rather than abrupt departure. With implied probability for no resignation above 90 percent, markets price in stability unless late-breaking events intervene. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical issues requiring transfer of power under the 25th Amendment, major scandals prompting congressional action, or unforeseen family or personal circumstances emerging within the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
4% вероятность
$527,690 Объем
$527,690 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$527,690 Объем
$527,690 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The trader consensus against Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, stems from his public commitments to serve through the full term ending in 2029, combined with no recent health disclosures, legal developments, or institutional pressures indicating otherwise. Historical precedent shows presidential resignations remain rare, and current polling trends plus administration priorities reflect continuity rather than abrupt departure. With implied probability for no resignation above 90 percent, markets price in stability unless late-breaking events intervene. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical issues requiring transfer of power under the 25th Amendment, major scandals prompting congressional action, or unforeseen family or personal circumstances emerging within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Объем
$527,690Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The trader consensus against Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, stems from his public commitments to serve through the full term ending in 2029, combined with no recent health disclosures, legal developments, or institutional pressures indicating otherwise. Historical precedent shows presidential resignations remain rare, and current polling trends plus administration priorities reflect continuity rather than abrupt departure. With implied probability for no resignation above 90 percent, markets price in stability unless late-breaking events intervene. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical issues requiring transfer of power under the 25th Amendment, major scandals prompting congressional action, or unforeseen family or personal circumstances emerging within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$527,690Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...The trader consensus against Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, stems from his public commitments to serve through the full term ending in 2029, combined with no recent health disclosures, legal developments, or institutional pressures indicating otherwise. Historical precedent shows presidential resignations remain rare, and current polling trends plus administration priorities reflect continuity rather than abrupt departure. With implied probability for no resignation above 90 percent, markets price in stability unless late-breaking events intervene. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical issues requiring transfer of power under the 25th Amendment, major scandals prompting congressional action, or unforeseen family or personal circumstances emerging within the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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