Traders assign a 96.5% probability that Donald Trump will not resign before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of presidential resignations outside of Watergate-era circumstances and the absence of verified developments indicating such a step. As of mid-2026, Trump has publicly discussed future political involvement, including joking references to extended service, while facing partisan speculation from opponents about midterm election pressures or fatigue with foreign policy challenges such as the Iran situation. No official announcements, health disclosures, or institutional actions point to an imminent departure, and confirmation processes or legislative dynamics have not produced the kind of sustained pressure seen in past high-profile exits. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a serious medical event, successful invocation of the 25th Amendment amid documented incapacity, or overwhelming midterm losses combined with internal party pressure prompting a voluntary exit before January 2027.