The Federal Reserve’s statutory foundation under the 1913 Federal Reserve Act requires congressional repeal or major constitutional-level changes, creating formidable legislative barriers that explain the 97.4% market-implied probability against abolition before 2027. With roughly six months remaining, stalled bills such as the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act (H.R. 1846) have advanced no further than committee referral, while political attention centers on chair transitions, interest-rate paths, and incremental regulatory adjustments rather than institutional dissolution. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched structure and the absence of near-term catalysts capable of overcoming bicameral majorities and Senate procedural hurdles. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to extreme, low-probability events such as a sudden constitutional crisis or radical realignment of congressional priorities, neither of which shows credible momentum in current conditions.