Lula da Silva maintains a lead in first-round polling averages ahead of the October 4 vote, typically placing him 7–10 points ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro while other candidates remain in single digits. Recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys show the incumbent at 38–42% versus Bolsonaro at 31–35%, producing projected victory margins that align with the market’s top-priced outcomes of 5–10% and 10–15%. The narrowing gap since spring reflects modest erosion in Lula’s support amid economic pressures, partially offset by targeted debt-relief and fuel-subsidy measures, while Bolsonaro recovered from June audio and family-related setbacks. Traders appear to view these dynamics as favoring a modest Lula edge in the first round rather than a blowout or upset by lower-polling challengers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПервый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы
Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы
Лула да Силва 5–10% 39%
Лула да Силва 10–15% 26.8%
Лула да Силва <5% 20%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10% 9.1%
$323,302 Объем
$323,302 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Лула да Силва 15%+
5%
Лула да Силва 10–15%
27%
Лула да Силва 5–10%
40%
Лула да Силва <5%
20%
Флавио Болсонару 10%+
3%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10%
8%
Флавиу Болсонару <5%
6%
Победа Ренана Сантоса
1%
Победа Тарсилиу де Фрейтаса
<1%
Победа Ратиньо Жуниора
1%
Другой
1%
Лула да Силва 5–10% 39%
Лула да Силва 10–15% 26.8%
Лула да Силва <5% 20%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10% 9.1%
$323,302 Объем
$323,302 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Лула да Силва 15%+
$12,152 Объем
5%
Лула да Силва 10–15%
$26,822 Объем
27%
Лула да Силва 5–10%
$18,154 Объем
40%
Лула да Силва <5%
$19,690 Объем
20%
Флавио Болсонару 10%+
$6,355 Объем
3%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10%
$6,104 Объем
8%
Флавиу Болсонару <5%
$10,490 Объем
6%
Победа Ренана Сантоса
$210,825 Объем
1%
Победа Тарсилиу де Фрейтаса
$3,532 Объем
<1%
Победа Ратиньо Жуниора
$4,155 Объем
1%
Другой
$5,022 Объем
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva maintains a lead in first-round polling averages ahead of the October 4 vote, typically placing him 7–10 points ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro while other candidates remain in single digits. Recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys show the incumbent at 38–42% versus Bolsonaro at 31–35%, producing projected victory margins that align with the market’s top-priced outcomes of 5–10% and 10–15%. The narrowing gap since spring reflects modest erosion in Lula’s support amid economic pressures, partially offset by targeted debt-relief and fuel-subsidy measures, while Bolsonaro recovered from June audio and family-related setbacks. Traders appear to view these dynamics as favoring a modest Lula edge in the first round rather than a blowout or upset by lower-polling challengers.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Объем
$323,302Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva maintains a lead in first-round polling averages ahead of the October 4 vote, typically placing him 7–10 points ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro while other candidates remain in single digits. Recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys show the incumbent at 38–42% versus Bolsonaro at 31–35%, producing projected victory margins that align with the market’s top-priced outcomes of 5–10% and 10–15%. The narrowing gap since spring reflects modest erosion in Lula’s support amid economic pressures, partially offset by targeted debt-relief and fuel-subsidy measures, while Bolsonaro recovered from June audio and family-related setbacks. Traders appear to view these dynamics as favoring a modest Lula edge in the first round rather than a blowout or upset by lower-polling challengers.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$323,302Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lula da Silva maintains a lead in first-round polling averages ahead of the October 4 vote, typically placing him 7–10 points ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro while other candidates remain in single digits. Recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys show the incumbent at 38–42% versus Bolsonaro at 31–35%, producing projected victory margins that align with the market’s top-priced outcomes of 5–10% and 10–15%. The narrowing gap since spring reflects modest erosion in Lula’s support amid economic pressures, partially offset by targeted debt-relief and fuel-subsidy measures, while Bolsonaro recovered from June audio and family-related setbacks. Traders appear to view these dynamics as favoring a modest Lula edge in the first round rather than a blowout or upset by lower-polling challengers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы