Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who carries the Liberal Party banner after his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and ineligibility. Recent national surveys show the pair statistically tied in runoff simulations and separated by only a few points in first-round scenarios, with remaining support fragmented among candidates such as Renan Santos and center-right governors. This polarization, combined with economic pressures and low approval ratings near 45 percent for the incumbent, sustains trader pricing that favors a narrow Lula victory or an “other” outcome. Upcoming polling releases, potential endorsements from governors like Romeu Zema or Ronaldo Caiado, and any late consolidation of the right-wing vote could widen or narrow the margin ahead of the October 4 first round.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПервый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы
Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы
Лула да Силва <5% 31%
Лула да Силва 5–10% 18%
Флавиу Болсонару <5% 16%
Лула да Силва 10–15% 7.8%
$231,585 Объем
$231,585 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Лула да Силва 15%+
3%
Лула да Силва 10–15%
8%
Лула да Силва 5–10%
18%
Лула да Силва <5%
34%
Флавио Болсонару 10%+
2%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10%
7%
Флавиу Болсонару <5%
16%
Победа Ренана Сантоса
5%
Победа Тарсилиу де Фрейтаса
<1%
Победа Ратиньо Жуниора
<1%
Другой
22%
Лула да Силва <5% 31%
Лула да Силва 5–10% 18%
Флавиу Болсонару <5% 16%
Лула да Силва 10–15% 7.8%
$231,585 Объем
$231,585 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Лула да Силва 15%+
$4,601 Объем
3%
Лула да Силва 10–15%
$2,627 Объем
8%
Лула да Силва 5–10%
$6,808 Объем
18%
Лула да Силва <5%
$2,923 Объем
34%
Флавио Болсонару 10%+
$1,984 Объем
2%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10%
$2,309 Объем
7%
Флавиу Болсонару <5%
$4,026 Объем
16%
Победа Ренана Сантоса
$200,567 Объем
5%
Победа Тарсилиу де Фрейтаса
$1,707 Объем
<1%
Победа Ратиньо Жуниора
$1,774 Объем
<1%
Другой
$2,258 Объем
22%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who carries the Liberal Party banner after his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and ineligibility. Recent national surveys show the pair statistically tied in runoff simulations and separated by only a few points in first-round scenarios, with remaining support fragmented among candidates such as Renan Santos and center-right governors. This polarization, combined with economic pressures and low approval ratings near 45 percent for the incumbent, sustains trader pricing that favors a narrow Lula victory or an “other” outcome. Upcoming polling releases, potential endorsements from governors like Romeu Zema or Ronaldo Caiado, and any late consolidation of the right-wing vote could widen or narrow the margin ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Объем
$231,585Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who carries the Liberal Party banner after his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and ineligibility. Recent national surveys show the pair statistically tied in runoff simulations and separated by only a few points in first-round scenarios, with remaining support fragmented among candidates such as Renan Santos and center-right governors. This polarization, combined with economic pressures and low approval ratings near 45 percent for the incumbent, sustains trader pricing that favors a narrow Lula victory or an “other” outcome. Upcoming polling releases, potential endorsements from governors like Romeu Zema or Ronaldo Caiado, and any late consolidation of the right-wing vote could widen or narrow the margin ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$231,585Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who carries the Liberal Party banner after his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and ineligibility. Recent national surveys show the pair statistically tied in runoff simulations and separated by only a few points in first-round scenarios, with remaining support fragmented among candidates such as Renan Santos and center-right governors. This polarization, combined with economic pressures and low approval ratings near 45 percent for the incumbent, sustains trader pricing that favors a narrow Lula victory or an “other” outcome. Upcoming polling releases, potential endorsements from governors like Romeu Zema or Ronaldo Caiado, and any late consolidation of the right-wing vote could widen or narrow the margin ahead of the October 4 first round.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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