**Yabloko's persistently low national polling (typically 1.4–2.8% in 2026 surveys) and documented administrative barriers explain the strong trader consensus against clearing Russia's 5% Duma threshold.** The liberal party, which received roughly 1.2–1.3% in 2021, continues to poll far below the level needed for proportional-representation seats despite Central Election Commission registration of its federal list and single-mandate candidates in July 2026. Ongoing legal actions have disqualified dozens of its candidates and leaders (including Nikolai Rybakov) on extremism-related grounds, while its explicit anti-war platform faces restricted media access and regional pressure. These constraints, combined with the dominance of parliamentary parties and limited regional strongholds, have kept Yabloko's implied support well short of the threshold in every recent nationwide poll. No major polling shift or policy change has emerged to alter this positioning ahead of the September vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВыборы в России: «Яблоко» убирает думский порог?
Выборы в России: «Яблоко» убирает думский порог?
Да
13% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
Да
13% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**Yabloko's persistently low national polling (typically 1.4–2.8% in 2026 surveys) and documented administrative barriers explain the strong trader consensus against clearing Russia's 5% Duma threshold.** The liberal party, which received roughly 1.2–1.3% in 2021, continues to poll far below the level needed for proportional-representation seats despite Central Election Commission registration of its federal list and single-mandate candidates in July 2026.
Ongoing legal actions have disqualified dozens of its candidates and leaders (including Nikolai Rybakov) on extremism-related grounds, while its explicit anti-war platform faces restricted media access and regional pressure. These constraints, combined with the dominance of parliamentary parties and limited regional strongholds, have kept Yabloko's implied support well short of the threshold in every recent nationwide poll. No major polling shift or policy change has emerged to alter this positioning ahead of the September vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Открытие рынка: Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
Объем
$3,359Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**Yabloko's persistently low national polling (typically 1.4–2.8% in 2026 surveys) and documented administrative barriers explain the strong trader consensus against clearing Russia's 5% Duma threshold.** The liberal party, which received roughly 1.2–1.3% in 2021, continues to poll far below the level needed for proportional-representation seats despite Central Election Commission registration of its federal list and single-mandate candidates in July 2026.
Ongoing legal actions have disqualified dozens of its candidates and leaders (including Nikolai Rybakov) on extremism-related grounds, while its explicit anti-war platform faces restricted media access and regional pressure. These constraints, combined with the dominance of parliamentary parties and limited regional strongholds, have kept Yabloko's implied support well short of the threshold in every recent nationwide poll. No major polling shift or policy change has emerged to alter this positioning ahead of the September vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Объем
$3,359Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Yabloko's persistently low national polling (typically 1.4–2.8% in 2026 surveys) and documented administrative barriers explain the strong trader consensus against clearing Russia's 5% Duma threshold.** The liberal party, which received roughly 1.2–1.3% in 2021, continues to poll far below the level needed for proportional-representation seats despite Central Election Commission registration of its federal list and single-mandate candidates in July 2026. Ongoing legal actions have disqualified dozens of its candidates and leaders (including Nikolai Rybakov) on extremism-related grounds, while its explicit anti-war platform faces restricted media access and regional pressure. These constraints, combined with the dominance of parliamentary parties and limited regional strongholds, have kept Yabloko's implied support well short of the threshold in every recent nationwide poll. No major polling shift or policy change has emerged to alter this positioning ahead of the September vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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