**United Russia’s entrenched dominance across Russia’s electoral system underpins the 79.5% implied probability for “Yes.”** The party has secured constitutional or outright majorities in every recent regional legislative and gubernatorial contest through administrative resources, candidate vetting, electronic voting expansion, and the effective exclusion of genuine opposition. In the September 2025 regional votes, United Russia-aligned candidates captured all but one governorship and roughly 81% of seats in the contested legislatures. Preparations for the September 18–20, 2026, nationwide elections—including the State Duma and concurrent regional assembly and gubernatorial races in dozens of regions—follow the same pattern. The Kremlin has directed regional administrations to deliver majorities, with party structures reorganized in 2025 to tighten central control and elevate war veterans on candidate lists. Targets have been modestly lowered in weaker regions to around 45–50% of the vote amid softer polling, yet analysts across sources still project United Russia retaining every regional legislature it currently controls. These structural advantages—incumbency, media environment, and procedural tools—have produced consistent sweeps in prior cycles, sustaining trader consensus that the outcome will again hold nationwide despite economic pressures and turnout variability.