Recent administrative disqualifications of dozens of Yabloko candidates under post-2022 foreign agent and anti-extremism provisions, combined with the party's anti-war platform, have created a narrow path to full participation in the September 2026 State Duma vote. Trader consensus around a 55% chance of effective exclusion by the September 17 deadline reflects ongoing court proceedings, including a recent Rodina party lawsuit now before the Supreme Court, and the risk that disqualifications exceeding one-quarter of the federal list could trigger removal by the Central Election Commission. Kremlin statements criticizing the party's messaging add institutional pressure, while Yabloko's late-July list registration and regional court challenges in areas like Karelia and St. Petersburg illustrate the contested legal environment. These factors sustain uncertainty over whether procedural barriers will fully block the party's campaign before voting begins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено57% вероятность
$20,408 Объем
$20,408 Объем
17 сент. 2026 г.
57% вероятность
$20,408 Объем
$20,408 Объем
17 сент. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent administrative disqualifications of dozens of Yabloko candidates under post-2022 foreign agent and anti-extremism provisions, combined with the party's anti-war platform, have created a narrow path to full participation in the September 2026 State Duma vote. Trader consensus around a 55% chance of effective exclusion by the September 17 deadline reflects ongoing court proceedings, including a recent Rodina party lawsuit now before the Supreme Court, and the risk that disqualifications exceeding one-quarter of the federal list could trigger removal by the Central Election Commission. Kremlin statements criticizing the party's messaging add institutional pressure, while Yabloko's late-July list registration and regional court challenges in areas like Karelia and St. Petersburg illustrate the contested legal environment. These factors sustain uncertainty over whether procedural barriers will fully block the party's campaign before voting begins.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 7, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Объем
$20,408Дата окончания
17 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent administrative disqualifications of dozens of Yabloko candidates under post-2022 foreign agent and anti-extremism provisions, combined with the party's anti-war platform, have created a narrow path to full participation in the September 2026 State Duma vote. Trader consensus around a 55% chance of effective exclusion by the September 17 deadline reflects ongoing court proceedings, including a recent Rodina party lawsuit now before the Supreme Court, and the risk that disqualifications exceeding one-quarter of the federal list could trigger removal by the Central Election Commission. Kremlin statements criticizing the party's messaging add institutional pressure, while Yabloko's late-July list registration and regional court challenges in areas like Karelia and St. Petersburg illustrate the contested legal environment. These factors sustain uncertainty over whether procedural barriers will fully block the party's campaign before voting begins.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yabloko is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Russian authorities that prevents Yabloko from contesting the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections as a political party. This includes, but is not limited to: Yabloko being denied registration to contest the specified election, or having such registration revoked or annulled; Yabloko’s federal list of candidates being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to participate in the federal electoral district; Yabloko being forcibly dissolved, deregistered, or otherwise ceasing to be a legally registered political party in Russia; the party being suspended or otherwise designated in a manner that bars its participation in the specified election; or an official determination that votes cast for Yabloko’s federal list will not be counted or will be invalidated. If Yabloko’s federal list is ineligible to contest the election, this will suffice regardless of whether individual candidates nominated by, affiliated with, or identified with Yabloko remain eligible to contest one or more single-member constituencies.
A decision by Yabloko to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the specified election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual Yabloko candidates or officials will not qualify, provided the Yabloko party list remains eligible to contest the specified election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Russian government, by Yabloko, or by an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting that Yabloko has been banned may also be used.
A qualifying decision will count as soon as it takes legal effect. Once such a decision has taken effect, any subsequent stay, suspension, reversal, annulment, reinstatement, or other action that modifies or renders the decision ineffective will not affect this market’s resolution.
Confirmation of a ban must occur by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Russian government and Yabloko; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$20,971Дата окончания
17 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent administrative disqualifications of dozens of Yabloko candidates under post-2022 foreign agent and anti-extremism provisions, combined with the party's anti-war platform, have created a narrow path to full participation in the September 2026 State Duma vote. Trader consensus around a 55% chance of effective exclusion by the September 17 deadline reflects ongoing court proceedings, including a recent Rodina party lawsuit now before the Supreme Court, and the risk that disqualifications exceeding one-quarter of the federal list could trigger removal by the Central Election Commission. Kremlin statements criticizing the party's messaging add institutional pressure, while Yabloko's late-July list registration and regional court challenges in areas like Karelia and St. Petersburg illustrate the contested legal environment. These factors sustain uncertainty over whether procedural barriers will fully block the party's campaign before voting begins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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