Recent August 2026 polls for the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt state election show the AfD leading with 41-43% support, ahead of the CDU at 22-24% and smaller parties clustered near or below the 5% threshold. In the roughly 83-seat Landtag, an absolute majority requires at least 42 seats. Current surveys project the AfD near but typically short of this mark under Germany’s mixed-member proportional system, which accounts for overhang mandates and smaller-party performance. Trader consensus pricing the outcome at roughly 28-32% probability aligns with this narrow gap and the absence of recent polling surges or campaign developments that would push the AfD over the threshold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWill AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
$287,133 Объем
$287,133 Объем
$287,133 Объем
$287,133 Объем
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Открытие рынка: May 12, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent August 2026 polls for the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt state election show the AfD leading with 41-43% support, ahead of the CDU at 22-24% and smaller parties clustered near or below the 5% threshold. In the roughly 83-seat Landtag, an absolute majority requires at least 42 seats. Current surveys project the AfD near but typically short of this mark under Germany’s mixed-member proportional system, which accounts for overhang mandates and smaller-party performance. Trader consensus pricing the outcome at roughly 28-32% probability aligns with this narrow gap and the absence of recent polling surges or campaign developments that would push the AfD over the threshold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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