Recent polling averages place Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro well ahead in Brazil’s October 4 first round, setting up a likely runoff, while Renan Santos, Augusto Cury, and Ronaldo Caiado compete for third. Aggregators show Santos and Cury clustered near 4–5% and Caiado near 3%, with Santos maintaining or improving relative standing in the final week. Santos’s Mission Party campaign has emphasized youth outreach and institutional critiques, drawing media attention despite his exclusion from the final Globo debate over parliamentary representation rules. Caiado’s PSD bid has drawn less late momentum, while Cury’s Avante candidacy has seen minor softening. Traders price Santos highest for third place on the basis of these narrow polling margins and visible final-stage positioning.