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Мир·Глобальные выборы

Какие кандидаты выйдут во второй тур президентских выборов в Бразилии?

icon for Какие кандидаты выйдут во второй тур президентских выборов в Бразилии?
Мир·Глобальные выборы

Какие кандидаты выйдут во второй тур президентских выборов в Бразилии?

$320,166 Объем

4 окт. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$320,166 Объем

Polymarket

Луис Инасиу Лула да Силва

$134,615 Объем

83%

Флавио Болсонару

$20,597 Объем

72%

Фернанду Аддад

$51,135 Объем

8%

Мишель Болсонару

$26,595 Объем

4%

Жаир Болсонару

$11,175 Объем

3%

Тарсисио де Фрейтас

$76,048 Объем

3%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term against a fragmented field led by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who secured his father's endorsement in December 2025 after Jair Bolsonaro became ineligible. Recent national polls, including AtlasIntel and BTG Nexus surveys from March and April 2026, show Lula and Flávio statistically tied in simulated runoffs at roughly 46-48 percent each, while first-round projections place Lula near 44-46 percent and Flávio near 39-40 percent. Other declared candidates such as Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD continue to split right-leaning support, though endorsements or withdrawals could consolidate votes before the October ballot. Economic indicators, approval ratings around 44-47 percent for the president, and any late shifts among center-right governors remain the main variables that could determine which two candidates advance to the October 25 runoff.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$320,166
Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth term against a fragmented field led by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who secured his father's endorsement in December 2025 after Jair Bolsonaro became ineligible. Recent national polls, including AtlasIntel and BTG Nexus surveys from March and April 2026, show Lula and Flávio statistically tied in simulated runoffs at roughly 46-48 percent each, while first-round projections place Lula near 44-46 percent and Flávio near 39-40 percent. Other declared candidates such as Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD continue to split right-leaning support, though endorsements or withdrawals could consolidate votes before the October ballot. Economic indicators, approval ratings around 44-47 percent for the president, and any late shifts among center-right governors remain the main variables that could determine which two candidates advance to the October 25 runoff.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$320,166
Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Текущий фаворит для «Какие кандидаты выйдут во второй тур президентских выборов в Бразилии?» — «Луис Инасиу Лула да Силва» с 83%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 83%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Флавио Болсонару» с 72%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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