Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro hold the clearest paths to Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, with trader consensus pricing Lula near-certain and Flávio highly likely to reach the October 25 runoff. Recent Quaest, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel surveys show Lula at roughly 40 percent in the opening round and leading Flávio by narrow margins in hypothetical second-round matchups, while the remainder of the field—Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remains in single digits. The right remains fragmented after Jair Bolsonaro’s disqualification and Tarcísio de Freitas’s decision to seek re-election as São Paulo governor; official campaigning began August 16 and the first debate is scheduled for August 23. No candidate is viewed as likely to secure an outright majority, keeping the two-candidate runoff the dominant scenario priced by markets.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакие кандидаты выйдут во второй тур президентских выборов в Бразилии?
Какие кандидаты выйдут во второй тур президентских выборов в Бразилии?
$475,220 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Луис Инасиу Лула да Силва
97%
Флавио Болсонару
90%
Ренан Сантос
7%
Ромеу Зема
2%
Мишель Болсонару
1%
Роналду Кайаду
1%
Тарсисио де Фрейтас
1%
Жаир Болсонару
1%
Фернанду Аддад
1%
$475,220 Объем
Луис Инасиу Лула да Силва
$218,672 Объем
97%
Флавио Болсонару
$47,095 Объем
90%
Ренан Сантос
$11,342 Объем
7%
Ромеу Зема
$610 Объем
2%
Мишель Болсонару
$34,442 Объем
1%
Роналду Кайаду
$698 Объем
1%
Тарсисио де Фрейтас
$81,768 Объем
1%
Жаир Болсонару
$15,629 Объем
1%
Фернанду Аддад
$64,965 Объем
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro hold the clearest paths to Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, with trader consensus pricing Lula near-certain and Flávio highly likely to reach the October 25 runoff. Recent Quaest, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel surveys show Lula at roughly 40 percent in the opening round and leading Flávio by narrow margins in hypothetical second-round matchups, while the remainder of the field—Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remains in single digits. The right remains fragmented after Jair Bolsonaro’s disqualification and Tarcísio de Freitas’s decision to seek re-election as São Paulo governor; official campaigning began August 16 and the first debate is scheduled for August 23. No candidate is viewed as likely to secure an outright majority, keeping the two-candidate runoff the dominant scenario priced by markets.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
Объем
$475,220Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro hold the clearest paths to Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, with trader consensus pricing Lula near-certain and Flávio highly likely to reach the October 25 runoff. Recent Quaest, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel surveys show Lula at roughly 40 percent in the opening round and leading Flávio by narrow margins in hypothetical second-round matchups, while the remainder of the field—Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remains in single digits. The right remains fragmented after Jair Bolsonaro’s disqualification and Tarcísio de Freitas’s decision to seek re-election as São Paulo governor; official campaigning began August 16 and the first debate is scheduled for August 23. No candidate is viewed as likely to secure an outright majority, keeping the two-candidate runoff the dominant scenario priced by markets.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$475,220Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro hold the clearest paths to Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, with trader consensus pricing Lula near-certain and Flávio highly likely to reach the October 25 runoff. Recent Quaest, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel surveys show Lula at roughly 40 percent in the opening round and leading Flávio by narrow margins in hypothetical second-round matchups, while the remainder of the field—Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remains in single digits. The right remains fragmented after Jair Bolsonaro’s disqualification and Tarcísio de Freitas’s decision to seek re-election as São Paulo governor; official campaigning began August 16 and the first debate is scheduled for August 23. No candidate is viewed as likely to secure an outright majority, keeping the two-candidate runoff the dominant scenario priced by markets.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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