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World·Global Elections

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

icon for Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
World·Global Elections

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

$406,462 Объем

4 окт. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$406,462 Объем

Polymarket

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$188,433 Объем

95%

Flavio Bolsonaro

$37,148 Объем

66%

Renan Santos

$64 Объем

19%

Romeu Zema

$136 Объем

19%

Ronaldo Caiado

$90 Объем

16%

Fernando Haddad

$59,526 Объем

6%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$28,196 Объем

4%

Jair Bolsonaro

$12,829 Объем

2%

Tarcisio de Frietas

$80,040 Объем

2%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the leading contenders to advance from Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round, with recent polling showing them neck-and-neck in runoff matchups amid rising undecided voters. A May-June scandal involving audios of Flávio soliciting funds from a banker under fraud investigation has eroded his support and reopened questions about who will consolidate the right-wing vote. Other registered figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register low single digits but could influence second-place positioning if opposition fragmentation persists. Jair Bolsonaro’s ongoing ineligibility continues to shape the field. Official candidacies are due in July, with the runoff—if required—set for October 25; voter concerns over crime, corruption, and fiscal policy will likely determine which two candidates clear the threshold.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$406,462
Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the leading contenders to advance from Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round, with recent polling showing them neck-and-neck in runoff matchups amid rising undecided voters. A May-June scandal involving audios of Flávio soliciting funds from a banker under fraud investigation has eroded his support and reopened questions about who will consolidate the right-wing vote. Other registered figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register low single digits but could influence second-place positioning if opposition fragmentation persists. Jair Bolsonaro’s ongoing ineligibility continues to shape the field. Official candidacies are due in July, with the runoff—if required—set for October 25; voter concerns over crime, corruption, and fiscal policy will likely determine which two candidates clear the threshold.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$406,462
Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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«Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 9 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva» с 95%, за ним следует «Flavio Bolsonaro» с 66%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 95¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 95%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $406.5K с момента запуска рынка Sep 18, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?», просмотри 9 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?» — «Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva» с 95%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 95%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Flavio Bolsonaro» с 66%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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