Eduardo Paes (PSD) holds an 81.9% implied probability as the frontrunner for the October 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election due to sustained leads in recent polling. September Datafolha and Prefab Future surveys showed him at 37–43% in first-round scenarios, 18 points ahead of Douglas Ruas (PL) at 20–25%, with Anthony Garotinho (Republicanos) at 7–10% before his candidacy was rejected by the TRE-RJ. Paes benefits from high name recognition as a four-time former Rio mayor, support from President Lula, and emphasis on public security coordination and anti-corruption measures. Ruas has narrowed the gap modestly since August amid PL backing and free airtime, yet remains distant in both rounds. Minor candidates register 1–2% or less, leaving little room for late shifts before the October 4 first round and potential October 25 runoff.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЭдуарду Паэс 81.9%
Дуглас Руас 18.4%
Рафа Луз <1%
Полковник Бузнелло <1%
$492,668 Объем
$492,668 Объем
Эдуарду Паэс
82%
Дуглас Руас
18%
Рафа Луз
<1%
Полковник Бузнелло
<1%
Фелипе Кури
<1%
Доктор Луизиньо
<1%
Эдуардо Пазуэлло
<1%
Тарсисио Мотта
<1%
Энтони Гаротиньо
<1%
Вилсон Виццел
<1%
Андре Португеш
<1%
Линдберг Фариас
<1%
Никола Микконе
<1%
Андре Сесилиано
<1%
Чико Мачадо
<1%
Фред Пачеко
<1%
Эдуарду Паэс 81.9%
Дуглас Руас 18.4%
Рафа Луз <1%
Полковник Бузнелло <1%
$492,668 Объем
$492,668 Объем
Эдуарду Паэс
82%
Дуглас Руас
18%
Рафа Луз
<1%
Полковник Бузнелло
<1%
Фелипе Кури
<1%
Доктор Луизиньо
<1%
Эдуардо Пазуэлло
<1%
Тарсисио Мотта
<1%
Энтони Гаротиньо
<1%
Вилсон Виццел
<1%
Андре Португеш
<1%
Линдберг Фариас
<1%
Никола Микконе
<1%
Андре Сесилиано
<1%
Чико Мачадо
<1%
Фред Пачеко
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Paes (PSD) holds an 81.9% implied probability as the frontrunner for the October 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election due to sustained leads in recent polling. September Datafolha and Prefab Future surveys showed him at 37–43% in first-round scenarios, 18 points ahead of Douglas Ruas (PL) at 20–25%, with Anthony Garotinho (Republicanos) at 7–10% before his candidacy was rejected by the TRE-RJ. Paes benefits from high name recognition as a four-time former Rio mayor, support from President Lula, and emphasis on public security coordination and anti-corruption measures. Ruas has narrowed the gap modestly since August amid PL backing and free airtime, yet remains distant in both rounds. Minor candidates register 1–2% or less, leaving little room for late shifts before the October 4 first round and potential October 25 runoff.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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